NRFI Best Bets to Target on Thursday 7/11/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-140)

We have a pair of capable starting pitchers combined with below-average first-inning offenses in this contest, which is why we're seeing the odds lean toward a NRFI.

Although the Toronto Blue Jays' offense has picked it up a bit more lately, they're still second-to-last in YRFI rate (18.5%). The San Francisco Giants haven't been much better, ranking 24th (20.4%). No player has shorter than +480 odds to hit a home run.

Kevin Gausman will take the hill for the Blue Jays, and while his results have been up and down all year, he comes in with a 3.75 SIERA, 24.0% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate. He's converted a NRFI in 77.8% of his 2024 starts and has done so in 9 of his last 10.

San Francisco's Jordan Hicks doesn't have numbers that jump off the page, but the right-hander has recorded a 4.19 SIERA and has limited dingers with a 50.4% ground-ball rate.

This righty-heavy Toronto offense will likely have just one lefty in the top half of the lineup, and Hicks has encouraging metrics in same-handed matchups with a 3.38 xFIP, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate.

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-138)

This game checks several boxes for a YRFI, making this an appealing spot to target despite the shorter odds.

The wind will be blowing out at 15-plus mph, temperatures will be in the mid-80s, Fenway Park is Baseball Savant's second-best hitter's park, and Oakland Athletics right-hander Luis Medina is one of the weakest starters on the entire slate.

Over seven starts this season, Medina has logged a 5.42 SIERA, 15.9% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate, and 37.2% ground-ball rate. His lack of punchouts or grounders should leave him wide open to giving up dingers in these elite hitting conditions.

The Boston Red Sox have a solid YRFI rate (29.7%), and in the first inning they rank eighth in wRC+ (117), seventh in ISO (.196), and fifth in walk rate (10.0%). Sluggers Rafael Devers and Tyler O'Neill both have strong odds to hit a home run at +300 and +360, respectively.

The A's offense is the obvious weak link here, particularly because they have a tough matchup against righty Tanner Houck (3.27 SIERA). However, Oakland has actually put together an above-average 32.0% YRFI rate over their last 25 games, and they'll get the same boost as Boston from the weather and venue.

It's hard to nitpick Houck's profile too much, and his 55.2% ground-ball rate will help him keep the ball out of the air. But his strikeout rate dips to just 20.5% versus left-handed batters, so guys like JJ Bleday and Tyler Soderstrom -- who both project to hit in the top half of the order -- should have an easier time putting the ball in play.

Additionally, while righty Brent Rooker strikes out a lot, he's a dangerous home run threat with a 97th percentile barrel rate and +400 odds to hit a home run.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.