North Carolina vs San Diego State Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament First Four

The San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) are aiming to secure a spot in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament bracket in their First Four matchup with the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) on Tuesday at UD Arena, tipping off at 9:10 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Tuesday, March 18, 2025
• Game time: 9:10 p.m. ET
• TV channel: truTV
• Location: Dayton, Ohio
• Arena: UD Arena

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: North Carolina win (54.5%)

Take a look at these betting insights and trends before you bet on Tuesday's North Carolina-San Diego State spread (North Carolina -4.5) or over/under (141.5 points).

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North Carolina vs. San Diego State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• North Carolina has covered 15 times in 35 chances against the spread this season.
• San Diego State is 12-17-0 ATS this year.
• As a 4.5-point underdog or more in 2024-25, San Diego State is 2-3 against the spread compared to the 11-11 ATS record North Carolina puts up as a 4.5-point favorite.
• Against the spread, the Tar Heels have fared better at home, covering seven times in 15 home games, and four times in 12 road games.
• The Aztecs' winning percentage against the spread at home is .429 (6-8-0). On the road, it is .300 (3-7-0).

North Carolina vs. San Diego State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• North Carolina has been the moneyline favorite in 25 games this season and has come away with the win 21 times (84%) in those contests.
• The Tar Heels have a mark of 19-2 in contests where oddsmakers favor them by -200 or better on the moneyline.
• San Diego State has won 33.3% of the games this season it was the underdog on the moneyline (3-6).
• The Aztecs are 2-2 (winning 50% of their games) when playing as a moneyline underdog of +164 or longer.
• North Carolina has an implied victory probability of 66.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Head-to-Head Comparison

• North Carolina is outscoring opponents by 5.8 points per game with a +204 scoring differential overall. It puts up 80.8 points per game (32nd in college basketball) and gives up 75 per outing (271st in college basketball).
• RJ Davis is 112th in college basketball with a team-leading 17 points per game.
• San Diego State's +217 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 7.3 points per game) is a result of putting up 70.9 points per game (258th in college basketball) while allowing 63.6 per outing (14th in college basketball).
• Nicholas Boyd's team-leading 13.4 points per game rank him 462nd in the country.
• The Tar Heels pull down 33.3 rebounds per game (100th in college basketball) while allowing 31.2 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 2.1 boards per game.
• Ven-Allen Lubin paces the Tar Heels with 5.6 rebounds per game (418th in college basketball play).
• The Aztecs are 184th in the nation at 31.8 rebounds per game. That's similar to the 31.4 their opponents average.
• Magoon Gwath paces the team with 5.2 rebounds per game (542nd in college basketball).
• North Carolina's 102 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 45th in college basketball, and the 94.6 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 214th in college basketball.
• The Aztecs rank 215th in college basketball averaging 94.3 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are ninth, allowing 84.6 points per 100 possessions.

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