NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 10/28/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Jake Allen, Montreal Canadiens ($7,300)

There's a bit of risk with a Montreal Canadiens goaltender at the moment, but from a DFS perspective, the upside does not get better than the package Jake Allen ($7,300) is providing.

Allen is sixth in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (5.32 GSAx) through just three appearances, so he's playing an extremely high level individually. That's also shown through a 94.71 Fenwick save rate (FSv%). Any time we can get a bargain-level goaltender that's actually good, it's a plus.

However, Allen's situation provides a ton of upside in this specific format. The Canadiens are allowing the second-highest Corsi Against per 60 minutes (67.4), meaning he's seen plenty of shots come his way. J.A. has turned aside at least 31 shots in all three appearances this year.

The opposing Winnipeg Jets aren't an extremely scary matchup, ranking 12th in expected goals per 60 (3.23). If Allen is at the top of his game, the Jets can provide the shot volume he needs to be an elite play in DFS.

Allen is projected for 16.1 FanDuel points by numberFire's model today.

Stacks

Pittsburgh Penguins

This seven-game slate comes without a "must-have" option, but I think that will also supress popularity and give us freedom to roam.

Of all the matchups on the slate, I think the Pittsburgh Penguins are the best combination of personal offense and upside. The Pens were projected to be among the league's best scoring units, and they've delivered with the ninth-highest rate of expected goals per 60 minutes (3.38) to this point.

As a team, the Ottawa Senators' defense isn't exactly one to target. They've actually allowed the ninth-fewest expected goals per 60 (2.90), but luckily for us hoping to deploy the Pens, they've been pretty terrible in goal. Joonas Korpisalo, tonight's projected starter, is 54th among 61 qualifying goalies in GSAx (-2.15).

Korpisalo's struggles could be just what Jake Guentzel ($6,900) needs to get going. He tallied 36 goals a year ago but sits at just 1 lit lamp in 2023-24 on 21 shots. I wrote his anytime goal prop up today, and he's a great building block on Pittsburgh's top even-strength and power-play line with Sidney Crosby ($7,700) and Bryan Rust ($6,000). They fully correlate.

Finishing this stack is a bit odd; Kris Letang ($5,600) should play more with this group than Erik Karlsson ($7,000) at even strength, but Karlsson joins them on the power play. Remaining salary might determine the better play between them.

Nashville Predators

If you want an under-the-radar tournament stack, the Nashville Predators should still qualify despite perhaps the best matchup on the slate.

The Toronto Maple Leafs' 14th-worst Corsi Against per 60 (60.8) represents a neutral matchup for the skaters, and the goaltender drop here might still be under the radar to less-educated DFS players. Joseph Woll has turned the Leafs into a defensive juggernaut, leading the league in GSAx (7.36) in just four starts. However, Toronto is turning to Ilya Samsonov (-4.88 GSAx) tonight.

There's a reason Samsonov lost this gig, and the starless Preds should be able to take advantage of him. They're fifth in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.57), so we need to find a way to get here.

Ryan O'Reilly ($6,300), anchoring both the top line at even strength and with a man advantage, is an obvious place to start. Filip Forsberg ($7,800) has a bit of a prohibitive salary, but he's tallied at least four shots in every game this year and, similarly to Guentzel, is due for big-time shooting regression soon. I'd add Roman Josi ($7,100) to this trio; he's logged at least 25 minutes on the ice in every game decided by two of fewer goals this season.

Juuso Parssinen ($4,300) plays with this trio at even strength, and Luke Evangelista ($4,200) joins them on the power play. Parssinen's TOI average (15:34) is better than Evangelista's (14:22), but don't stress the extra $100 if you can't find it. Evangelista's minutes are arguably more valuable on the power play.

Value Skaters

Matthew Barzal, W, New York Islanders ($5,700)

The Columbus Blue Jackets were projected to be among the worst defenses in the league this year, and they've lived up to it by allowing the eighth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.31). I'm expecting the New York Islanders to be popular tonight despite Elvis Merzlikins' strong start (1.40 GSAx).

If you're hoping to avoid the chalk at higher salaries, Mathew Barzal ($5,700) can still help make your lineup work to hedge against it with an incredible role. He's on New York's top even-strength and power-play lines with an 18:21 TOI average.

Of course, Barzal was the center on this top line before Bo Horvat ($6,900) was acquired last year; he posted 59 points in just 73 games in 2021-22. He's a top-level player at this mid-range salary.

numberFire's projections love plenty of Islanders -- including Barzal. They've got him pegged for 15.6 FanDuel points on Saturday.

Pavel Zacha, C, Boston Bruins ($5,200)

Until this salary rises, I'll keep targeting Pavel Zacha ($5,200) on every single slate with the Boston Bruins playing.

Without fail, David Pastrnak ($10,000) and Brad Marchand ($7,500) are popular on every slate where last year's best team is present, but their pivot seems to be left behind. Zacha has an 18:39 TOI average playing with these two on Boston's first line at even strength and in 5-on-4 situations.

There is a reason for it; Zacha doesn't look at the net often, posting just 11 shots in 7 games this season. That pales in comparison to either Pastrnak (35) or Marchand (19) and lowers his floor. However, it's just bad luck he's only delivered 3 points to Marchand's 7 or Pastrnak's 10 when they share the ice together basically every shift.

Plus, the former New Jersey Devils center can score; he posted 21 goals and 36 assists on Boston's third line last year. The points are going to come with this improved opportunity in place of the retired Patrice Bergeron.

Zacha is projected for 0.72 points and 10.6 FanDuel points in tonight's game against the Detroit Red Wings; I'm going back to the well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.