NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 10/28/23

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 18 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens

Under 6.5 (-104)

A goaltender switch for the Winnipeg Jets has piqued the interest of both myself and numberFire toward the under in this one.

Winnipeg has struggled this year defensively, allowing 3.40 goals per 60 minutes, but their expected goals allowed per 60 (3.22) is a bit lower. Starting netminder Connor Hellebuyck has been uncharacteristically pedestrian, posting 0.60 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this season. It's possible Laurent Brossoit -- in his first start of the year -- is a significant upgrade. He posted 6.52 GSAx with the Vegas Golden Knights in just 11 appearances last season.

On the other side, Jake Allen has been masterful. He's tallied the sixth-best GSAx (5.32) on the young season, and the Montreal Canadiens' offense will usually help out the case for an under when he's starting in goal. They've tallied the 11th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes this season (3.02).

nF's historical model believes this under cashes 57.4% of the time, providing plenty of value against these 51.8% implied odds.

Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins

Bruins -1.5 (+136)

The Boston Bruins blew a two-goal lead to the lowly Anaheim Ducks on Thursday at TD Garden, but I'm expecting a bounce-back from the B's in this one.

They'll turn to Jeremy Swayman in goal, and he's been one of the best netminders in the league. Third in overall GSAx (6.48) despite just three appearances, there will likely be some difficult conversations in Beantown about whether he or Linus Ullmark gives the team the best chance to win on a given night. It's a good problem to have.

I'm still projecting Swayman as a significant advantage over Ville Husso (2.07 GSAx) despite Husso's strong start. Last season, the Detroit Red Wings' keeper posted an ugly -12.99 GSAx in a much larger sample (56 games), so like Linus van Pelt from The Peanuts, I'm waiting for the pumpkin to return.

To the surprise of no one, Boston's skaters (51.7% expected-goals-for rate) have thoroughly outperformed Detroit's (49.0%) in both areas, so I feel like these 42.4% implied odds are a gift with a significant advantage all over the ice. numberFire's model concurs, expecting Boston to cover this puckline 50.2% of the time.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg 4+ Shots (-118)
Filip Forsberg Anytime Goal (+190)

The dynamic between the pipes for the Toronto Maple Leafs might create value in these situations all season.

They're an entirely different team based on which netminder gets the start. Joseph Woll leads the NHL in overall GSAx (7.36), but Ilya Samsonov (-4.88 GSAx) is 58th among 61 qualifying goalies thus far. It's about as stark of a gap as you will see in the league, and that means the Nashville Predators' best offensive options shouldn't have such favorable props here.

Filip Forsberg has posted at least four shots in six of his seven games this year, and Toronto is no outlier matchup for shots. They've allowed the 14th-most Corsi Against per 60 minutes (60.8). Add in Samsonov's struggles, and it's not hard to see him converting one of those chances for a tally. Forsberg's 3.0% shot percentage is well behind his mark from last season (12.1%).

The Predators ML (+114) and Predators Team Total Over 2.5 (-154) are other ways to exploit Samsonov's shortcomings, but I prefer just backing their best player.

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins

Jake Guentzel Anytime Goal (+135)

As Sidney Crosby shifts from "Sid the Kid" to "Sid the Gramp", the Pittsburgh Penguins are thrusting more onto winger Jake Guentzel's plate, and I like the forward's chances of notching a tally tonight.

In seven games, Guentzel has recorded 21 shots and tallied just a single a goal. I just don't expect those averages to stick when Guentzel is pounding an incredibly healthy 19:31 TOI per game to this point in what have largely been blowouts; four of the Pens' seven games have been decided by at least three goals.

Last season, Guentz posted 3.13 shots per game in a lesser role, and he tallied 36 goals on a phenomenal 14.8% shot percentage. He was an All-Star for a reason. This season, he's shot just 4.8% and is due for significant regression atop Pittsburgh's lead even-strength and power-play lines.

The visiting Ottawa Senators are a pretty solid defensive club, allowing only 2.90 expected goals per 60 to this point. That's enough to avoid Guentzel's shot props for me, but I do believe he can score given his heavy workload. Ottawa's Joonas Korpisalo (-2.15 GSAx) has been a shell of the Korpisalo that was acquired from the Los Angeles Kings for a hefty ransom.

In plus matchups, Guentzel will be closer to -110 to score once he gets rolling; this line feels like buying the dip.

Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings

Golden Knights ML (-104)

These teams are both on the second leg of a back-to-back, and both saved their better goaltender for tonight's tilt. The problem is that Vegas' is just a lot better.

Logan Thompson is a respectable 16th in the NHL in GSAx (3.22) so far, forming a solid duo with Adin Hill that has gotten the reigning champs off to a 7-0-1 start. The lone loss came yesterday in overtime to the dismal Chicago Blackhawks, which was a stunning result but kept their regulation unbeaten streak alive.

L.A. represents a stiff test, too. They lead the league in expected-goals-for rate (58.2 xGF%), meaning they've outskated the Knights (52.6%; eighth-best) -- and everyone -- to this point. They're just 4-2-1, though, because they've not been quite as stout in goal. Starting tonight, Cam Talbot (-0.52 GSAx) has certainly outperformed Pheonix Copley (-5.46 GSAx), but neither have allowed the Kings to live up to their full potential.

As a slight underdog with a rest advantage of a few hours, I like siding with Vegas to keep rolling. The Vegas to L.A. trip is perhaps the easiest possible roadie in the league, and they've got a significantly more reliable 'tender.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.