NHL Betting Picks for Thursday 11/16/23: The Coyotes Deserve Some Respect
Four teams are in Sweden this weekend and the games have weird start times. We won't go over those games, but we still have plenty of games in North America to choose from.
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.
NHL Best Bets
Arizona Coyotes at Columbus Blue Jackets
Coyotes ML (-125)
The Arizona Coyotes have been playing well this season and seem to be on the up -- especially compared to the last few seasons.
They are exactly middle of the pack in terms of expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes at five-on-five. When you pair that with a surprisingly elite power play, it's a recipe for success.
Arizona is on the road tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus is the worst team in the Eastern Conference and has won just one game of their last 10.
The Blue Jackets are a much worse five-on-five team than the Coyotes. They are at 45.61% of the xG, 28th in the league.
The Coyotes have a stigma attached to them because of the way the last few seasons have gone and because of their arena situation. That shouldn't matter on the ice, where they are a better team than this iteration of the Blue Jackets.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks
Under 6.5 Goals (+104)
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks squared off just a week ago. That game was a pretty surprising result -- 5-3 in favor of Chicago. This feels like an outlier result that is shaping the odds tonight.
We'll start with diving into the Blackhawks' offensive metrics. It's not pretty -- they are close to bottom in nearly every category. They are second-to-last in xG per 60 minutes and dead last in high-danger chances per 60 minutes. They also have the fifth-worst power play in the league.
Tampa has had a strange start to the season. They certainly aren't the powerhouse they have been in the last few seasons, sitting at just 6-6-4 through 16 games. They are 13th in both xG per 60 (3.25) and actual goals per 60 (3.28).
The Lightning have been leaking goals this season, allowing 3.69 per game. Of course, a lot of this has to do with the absence of Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. Jonas Johansson has had some good games but also some real clunkers. He's more likely to have a good game against a team like Chicago who doesn't create much offense.
Getting odds on this game staying under is enough to warrant consideration for a bet tonight.
St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks
Under 6.5 (-128)
Some people like to root for high-scoring games. I like to root for whatever will win me money, and if that's the under, so be it.
In this game, we've got a matchup between two teams that don't generate a ton of offense. It's been well-documented that the San Jose Sharks really struggle to score. They've scored just 21 goals, and no other team has scored fewer than 33.
They'll face a goaltender who's been in great form this season. Jordan Binnington is coming off a shutout on Tuesday night and is fourth in goals saved above expected this season. A goalie playing this well against the weakest offensive team in the NHL should lead to an under.
The Blues aren't the best offense in the league either -- especially not at five-on-five. They are the league's third-worst team in xG per 60 minutes.
St. Louis is unlikely to go nuts like other teams have against the Sharks this season. With one of the best goalies in the league to this point, they should be able to hold San Jose to fewer than two goals.
That's a formula that should lead to the under cashing for us tonight.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.