NHL

NHL Betting Picks for Saturday's Stanley Cup Final Game 4 (Panthers vs. Oilers)

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
NHL Betting Picks for Saturday's Stanley Cup Final Game 4 (Panthers vs. Oilers)

The Florida Panthers won Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final, putting the Edmonton Oilers on the brink of elimination. Can the Oilers avoid the sweep at home on Saturday?

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. Now we're in the Stanley Cup final, with everything on the line for both teams.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers

Oilers Moneyline (-122)

After Thursday's game, there may feel like there is little reason to believe that the Oilers can beat the Panthers in a single game in the series, but the underlying numbers suggest otherwise.

The big narrative heading into the series was that Edmonton would struggle five-on-five. That hasn't really been the case. The Oilers have created more expected goals (xG) at full strength in two of the three games than the Panthers, via NaturalStatTrick.

Stanley Cup xGoals (5v5)
Panthers
Oilers
Game 11.632.74
Game 20.830.49
Game 32.082.45

Edmonton hasn't scored a power play goal in the series, despite having 10 opportunities in the three games. The Panthers' penalty kill has been fantastic throughout the playoffs, but even they shouldn't be able to keep this Oilers' power play down. Even after this slump, Edmonton's power play has a 31.2% success rate in the playoffs.

The Oilers have scored on just 3 of their 76 scoring chances in this series. Meanwhile, the Panthers have scored on 7 of their 57 chances. No matter how good Sergei Bobrovsky has been, this shouldn't be sustainable.

An Edmonton team that has Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and others should not shoot at just 4.65% consistently.

They've failed to score on 31 high-danger chances in this series. In the regular season, they scored on 19.55% of their high-danger chances, and in the playoffs, their conversion rate is 18.49%. It may be too late for the regression to catch up enough for them to win the series, but they should be able to at least win this game.

It feels like Florida has been completely dominating this series, but this data suggests that they have also been pretty lucky. I think Edmonton will fight off the sweep on Saturday and extend this series to at least a fifth game back in Florida.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.