NHL Betting Picks for Monday 4/29/24: Can the Panthers Close Out the Lightning?

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr
NHL Betting Picks for Monday 4/29/24: Can the Panthers Close Out the Lightning?

Two games are set for tonight in the Stanley Cup Playoffs with one series having the potential of being closed out.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

Panthers ML (-184)

The Florida Panthers are a win away from moving onto the next round in their playoff run of redemption. The Tampa Bay Lightning managed to survive last game, but it's going to be tough for them to do it again as they had back to Sunrise, Florida.

Florida has been the better team in the series -- as the 3-1 series lead would prove. But, even in their Game 4 loss, it looked like they were going to end the Lightning's season despite the goal-scoring surge. Tampa Bay went up 3-0 in the first period but by the end of the second period, it was 4-3. It's unlikely that the Panthers are going to allow the Lightning to score six goals again, especially while they're on home ice tonight.

For so much of this season, the Panthers have dominated on the defensive end.

The Panthers had a 51.88 Corsi against per 60 minutes (CA/60) at home -- the second-best mark in the NHL. They held opponents to 2.53 goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60) in those games, as well. Tampa Bay was destroyed on the road when it came to allowing goals, watching opponents score 3.46 GA/60 in that span.

All of this spells out the end of the Lightning season and a win for the Panthers. I like their moneyline on the two-game slate.

Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights

Under 5.5 Goals (+102)

The best series of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the one between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights.

In this series, the scoring has been low, but the Stars have been the team that's dominated. The Stars are allowing 2.75 GA/60 but have the best expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at a 2.12 clip. Dallas is also fourth with 3.45 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) despite only averaging 2.14 goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60).

The reason to take the under is that these totals are showing the fight between both of these teams. Vegas has arguably been lucky; they're being outplayed by the Stars in every statistic except actual goals scored. The Golden Knights have the fourth-worst Corsi for per 60 minutes (CF/60) in the postseason.

Because the Golden Knights are at home, I believe that should help them fend off the Stars enough to keep this game low on the scoring side. These teams have hit the under in two straight games.

This game is going to be a fight to the finish with Dallas looking to tie it up.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.