NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 5/12/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 5/12/24

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are some of the best postseason matchups you'll find anywhere in sports, and -- you guessed it -- they're a blast to bet on, as well.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

My favorite picks are on the way, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub to see other trending bets in all sports -- including ice hockey.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins

Bruins ML (+132)
Charlie Coyle 2+ Shots on Goal (-118)
Charlie Coyle to Record a Powerplay Point (+450)

For as much dirt is being tossed on the Boston Bruins' grave, they're a win away from sending this series back to South Beach tied at two.

With a mere 38.2 expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) in this battle with the Florida Panthers, the B's definitely have been the lesser squad. I'm just not sure this line is appropriate. That was the case all year with a mediocre 49.8 xGF%, yet Boston went 24-11 as one of the best home teams straight up (SU) in the league.

Much of the activity has to do with Jeremy Swayman's decline as the netminder has let in 9 goals on his last 65 shots faced. Swayman's 22.79 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) were fifth in the NHL this season, and goaltending can be fickle in small samples. I wouldn't be surprised if Boston's tendy got hot as quickly as he got cold.

numberFire, DRatings, and Massey Ratings combine to give the Bruins an average win probability of 49.4%. These odds imply just a 43.1% chance they nod the series.

With Boston needing offense and Brad Marchand now out for Game 4, I don't think the market has adjusted to Charlie Coyle's new role -- largely because the public may not have. Coyle has now stepped to the Bruins' top power-play unit in addition centering their second line instead of third line. Expect Coyle's playoff 18:21 TOI average to rise -- and, in turn, his shot volume.

Plus, he's now with goal-scorer David Pastrnak on the man advantage. I'm willing to take a small dart at +450 that Coyle can improve upon a decent rate of 2 powerplay points in 10 playoff games already with the Bruins' best scorers.

Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers

Oilers to Win in Regulation (-125)
J.T. Miller 3+ Shots on Goal (-106)

The Edmonton Oilers have yet to win a game in regulation during this series. As it shifts to Alberta, I'm expecting more lopsided results.

I did consider Oilers -1.5 (+136) in this spot, but that could be tempting empty-net fate. Instead, I'll just project the Oilers to be ahead without overtime required when the implied odds of that at -125 (55.6%) seem short compared to their overall -188 moneyline (65.3%).

Though Edmonton and the Vancouver Canucks are actually the tightest second-round series in expected-goal differential (+/- 0.24 per 60 minutes), this all comes down to the goaltending. In a raucous environment, does Arturs Silovs' Cinderella story finally strike midnight? Silovs' -0.50 GSAx in the regular season have turned into 0.31 in the playoffs against better competition.

I'm expecting the Canucks to trail, which correlates well to J.T. Miller's shot prop. The Canucks are a tricky offense to target for shots, but Miller led them in shots per game in the regular season (2.40) atop their lead even-strength and power-play unit currently. Roles don't really get better than that one.

Plus, Miller has been crushing this mark recently. He topped it in four of his six games last round but has failed to do so in both games against Edmonton so far. Surprise leads might have had something to do with that.

FanDuel Research's NHL projections expect 3.04 shots from Miller on Sunday, the fifth-most of any player in action. That alone would merit roughly -142 odds for at least three.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.