NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 4/21/24

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are some of the best postseason matchups you'll find anywhere in sports, and -- you guessed it -- they're a blast to bet on, as well.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

My favorite picks are on the way, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub to see other trending bets in all sports -- including ice hockey.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Washington Capitals at New York Rangers

Capitals +1.5 (-128)
Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+140)

This could be the ugliest series for scoring across all postseason matchups.

By any measure, the Washington Capitals are the weakest team in the postseason. They've scored the 10th-fewest expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes and surrendered the 12th-most themselves. The only problem taking them to get crushed? Everyone knows that, but most don't realize the 55-24-3 New York Rangers are pretty overrated themselves.

As a 1 seed, the Rags had just the 12th-best xGF% (51.9%) in the NHL. I think we just have to bet on the goaltending keeping these clubs off the board when Washington's Charlie Lindgren (18.58 goals saved above expectation) and New York's Igor Shesterkin (17.36 GSAx) were two of the top-15 netminders this season.

Key analytical models agree. With an average median spread of 1.08 goals between numberFire, DRatings, and Massey Ratings, you'd expect a +1.5 puckline of about -241 here. The Caps can be had for -128.

If they're keeping things tight, I'm counting on a huge game -- and series -- from Alex Ovechkin in what could be his final go-round. Ovechkin averaged 3.20 shots per game the last time we saw him in the playoffs, and he averaged 3.44 per game this season.

Expecting an increase in workload from a managed regular season, FanDuel Research's NHL projections have Ovi pegged for 3.63 median shots in this game. That would imply roughly +103 odds to post at least four.

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

Jets ML (-114)
Over 5.5 (-120)
Josh Morrissey to Record a Point (-102)

Due to goaltending, I'm expecting Winnipeg Jets should knock out the favored Colorado Avalanche in the first round.

Projected Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck led the NHL with 39.35 GSAx, which towers over Colorado's Alexandar Georgiev (-0.21 GSAXx) at perhaps Georgiev's lowest point of the season. He's ceded at least four goals in six of his last seven games, which also has to bring the over into the mix given Colorado's high-octane attack on the other side.

Switches can be flipped, but Winnipeg 56.7% goal share was ahead of Colorado (54.4%) for a reason. A pick 'em on home ice is fairly disrespectful -- a sentiment that numberFire (59.6%), DRatings (53.1%), and Massey (53.0%) echo via win probability. The models concur on the over, expecting 6.10 average total median goals.

If we indeed get a high-scoring Jets victory, Josh Morrissey is a likely contributor. Winnipeg's top blue-liner recorded 69 points in 81 games this season (0.85 per game). Also captaining the Jets' lead power-play unit, he'll likely see additional ice time -- as most top options will -- in the 'yoffs.

FDR's projections are expecting 0.82 median points from Morrissey in this one, which would imply roughly -127 odds for one. I love this prop given Georgiev's recent struggles when he tallied three points in the Jets' dismantling of Colorado last week.

Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks

Juuse Saros Over 27.5 Saves (-114)
Brock Boeser Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+128)

While leaning toward the Nashville Predators to win this series, the first Vancouver Canucks home playoff game in four years is a tough spot to call this specific upset.

Instead, I'll just project Nashville goalie Juuse Saros to stand on his head. Saros turned a rough start into 5.07 GSAx since the calendar turned to 2024 -- good for 30th in the NHL overall behind a Preds defense (3.03 xG allowed per 60) not extremely conducive to relying on its goalie.

With energy behind the home squad, I'm expecting Vancouver to come out firing, and our projections agree. They're expecting Saros to 31.9 shots today -- the most of any goaltender -- while saving 28.8 of them. That would roughly imply -142 odds of at least 28 saves, and it's a good way to potentially encapsulate the Preds stealing the game.

If the Canucks are firing, expect Brock Boeser to be involved. Boeser is the first-line right wing at even strength and on the power play, which hasn't been the case all season. A strong April with four points in seven games earned a promotion.

As a result, our projections also expect 3.10 median shots on goal from Brock. It's hard to believe we're getting +128 odds on at least three with that the case -- especially when Nashville allowed the 10th-most shots on goal per game (30.4) this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.