NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 4/27/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 4/27/24

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are some of the best postseason matchups you'll find anywhere in sports, and -- you guessed it -- they're a blast to bet on, as well.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

My favorite picks are on the way, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub to see other trending bets in all sports -- including ice hockey.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

Bo Horvat 3+ Shots on Goal (-135)
Brent Burns to Record a Point (+134)

This Carolina Hurricanes-New York Islanders series has been a tough bet in the outright market in all three games. The Canes are better, but Patrick Roy's gritty Isles typically hang tight. Two of three totals and all three pucklines have been decided by empty-net luck. No thanks.

Instead, we'll turn to some props, including a line for Bo Horvat that's likely depressed after a two-shot effort in Game 3. Horvat, though, also had two other attempts blocked or sent wide in the contest. In totality, he's posted 10 shots on goal in the series -- good for 3.33 per game. That's as close as you can get in a small sample to his 3.06 per game average from the regular season.

Bo topped this line in Games 1 and 2, and FanDuel Research's NHL projections have Horvat pegged for 3.32 shots on Saturday. If correct, that number alone would imply roughly -181 odds to record at least three.

After showing life with a goal in Game 3, it might also be wise to go back to the well that Carolina's top defenseman, Brent Burns, contributes to a goal again. Burns' role couldn't be better to score atop the lead power-play unit, and it appears the Canes were saving him for this time of year. He's played a 21:38 TOI compared to 20:00 in the final month of the regular season.

FDR has Burns listed to accrue 0.68 median points in the contest, which would imply +103 odds to record one or more. While this doesn't hit at a favorable clip, it certainly seems undervalued at +134.

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning ML (+100)

The 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup Champions are on the last leg of an era, and I expect them to go down swinging.

Down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers, it's not as if the Tampa Bay Lightning haven't had their chances. Game 2 went into overtime only for the Ice Cats to pull it out on home ice, and they've been within a goal with as few as 11 minutes left in all three tilts.

Florida's 56.2 expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) was always going to be a handful, but it'd be pretty stunning if the above-average Bolts (50.5 xGF%) weren't able to pull out a single game.

numberFire's model has Tampa Bay favored to win (53.0%) the contest as a slight underdog, so there's a bit of value here. In nF's most similar eight historical situations, five times the home team (representing Tampa Bay) ended up pulling out the win.

Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs

Ilya Samsonov 25+ Saves (-125)

When these Boston Bruins-Toronto Maple Leafs games have been close, Ilya Samsonov has faced pretty steady shot volume. I'm expecting that to ramp up with Toronto holding its most favorable moneyline (-126) of the series.

Samsonov has turned aside 27-plus shots in consecutive games with Game 1 -- decided by four goals -- the only exception in this odyssey. The Leafs were no outlier defense in this realm during the regular season, allowing the 13th-fewest shots on goal per 60 minutes (29.4). David Pastrnak and company have taken advantage.

This is a tough tilt to bet with numberFire, Massey Ratings, and DRatings all fairly in agreement that this line is accurate. I like this angle to the game because it likely improves if Toronto is ahead, but they've played consecutive one-goal margins and it has cashed, too.

FDR's projections are expecting 26.8 median saves from the Maple Leafs' goalie, which would roughly imply -196 odds to record at least 25 of them.

Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights

Over 5.5 (-128)
Roope Hintz to Record a Point (-122)

If there's a true must-win spot in the NHL across all of these Game 3s, it belongs to the Dallas Stars.

Dallas' excellent regular season is up in smoke as the Vegas Golden Knights took both games in DFW. Turning to Vegas, my favorite bet in this contest is both of these elite offenses -- ranking top 13 in goals per 60 minutes -- finally get on track for a bit of scoring. That largely has to do with the Stars.

They've posted just 2.00 goals per 60 minutes thus far despite 2.93 expected goals (xG) per 60. Plus, they were seventh in the NHL in xG per 60 (3.32) for the entire season. At a 5.5-goal total, I'm not too concerned about the Golden Knights so long as the struggling Jake Oettinger (-1.27 GSAx) is patrolling the Dallas crease.

The average game totals at numberFire (5.84), Massey (6.37), and DRatings (6.07) would combine for a 6.09 average total. That total would imply roughly -132 odds for over 5.5 goals, so there's still value left on this number.

If expecting some scoring -- especially from the Stars -- I'd have never believed that Roope Hintz could be had to simply just find the scoresheet at these odds. Hintz had 65 points in 80 games this season atop Dallas' lead even-strength and power-play units. Yet, recency bias amidst these struggles has won out. He hasn't recorded a point in five games despite the on-ice role remaining the same.

FDR's projections are still optimistic, expecting 0.84 points from the Finnish-born center. That projection implies approximately -132 odds to record a goal or an assist.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.