NFL

NFL Win Totals: Will the Chiefs Rack Up 12-Plus Wins in 2024?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
NFL Win Totals: Will the Chiefs Rack Up 12-Plus Wins in 2024?

Winning Super Bowls has become an expected occurrence for the Kansas City Chiefs in recent years. The Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls, three Super Bowls in the last five years, and they could become the first franchise in NFL history to win three straight in 2024-25.

Amid their journey to winning another title last season, Kansas City tallied an 11-6 record. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center and Andy Reid is calling the shots on the sideline, the Chiefs figure to be the team to beat every year.

Ahead of what should be another action-packed season in the NFL, we can take a look at NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook for the Chiefs and other teams around the league. With lofty expectations entering the 2024-25 campaign, let's discuss Kansas City's odds and outlook.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Kansas City Chiefs 2024 Win Total Odds

Chiefs Over/Under 11.5 Wins

  • Over: -118
  • Under: -104

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -520
Odds to Win the AFC West: -230
Odds to Win the AFC: +370
Super Bowl Odds: +600 (tied 1st)

Why Chiefs Could Win Over 11.5 Games

  • Patrick Mahomes is pretty good at this football thing
  • The Chiefs have made a concerted effort to surround Mahomes with more weapons
  • Kansas City's coaching staff remains intact from a season ago

Having the best quarterback in the league undoubtedly helps the Chiefs maintain their level of success. Mahomes is the ultimate difference-maker and can level things out for Kansas City when things don't seem to be going smoothly.

Even with an unreliable supporting cast of receivers in 2023-24, Mahomes compiled an elite 51.9% passing success rate and just a 4.1% sack rate in 20 games (including the playoffs), via NextGenStats. After watching Mahomes carry an offense devoid of consistent pass-catching options -- outside of Travis Kelce -- the Chiefs have made a concerted effort to improve their receiver room.

While Rashee Rice could face a multi-game suspension in the upcoming campaign, Kansas City signed Marquise Brown in free agency and selected Xavier Worthy in the first round of this year's draft. Upon adding Brown and Worthy, the Chiefs now have plenty of lethal speed in their offense, which makes a Mahomes-led offense even more dangerous.

Alongside the new faces, Kelce still managed to lead the Chiefs in target share (23.8%) and air yards share (24.6%) while logging the second-most yards per route run (2.25). Ahead of his age-35 season, Kelce figures to remain a prominent piece in Kansas City's new-look aerial attack.

Teams that win the Super Bowl often lose one or multiple assistants during the offseason, but the Chiefs didn't have any notable alterations to the coaching staff. Matt Nagy and Steve Spagnuolo are returning as the coordinators while Reid maintains his status as arguably the best head coach in the NFL.

Why Chiefs Could Win Under 11.5 Games

  • The departure of L'Jarius Sneed could put a dent in the secondary
  • The Chiefs are going to continue to have a target on their back
  • 12 Wins is a lofty number in the NFL

It is extremely tough to poke holes in Kansas City's quest to win 12 games and solidify themselves as Super Bowl contenders once again. The Chiefs had won 12-plus games in each of their previous five seasons before last year, Mahomes is one of the greatest signal-callers -- if not the greatest -- we've ever seen, and the roster is better on paper than last season's group.

At the same time, L'Jarius Sneed could be sorely missed in the secondary. Sneed was traded to the Tennessee Titans this offseason, netting the Chiefs a 2025 third-round pick.

Before being traded, Sneed emerged as a true shutdown cornerback for Kansas City, helping them post the fourth-best passing success rate on defense (59.4%) while playing man coverage at the eighth-highest rate (34.3%) in football. In terms of individual numbers, Sneed tallied 78 tackles, a career-best 14 deflections, and 2 interceptions in 2023-24.

Similar to every team who has won the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are going to continue to have a target on their back each week. Every opponent wants to beat the reigning champs, which leads to games that can sometimes be closer than expected.

For example, the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders -- who both combined for a 16-18 record a season ago -- secured wins over the Chiefs this past season. Anything can happen once the opening kickoff takes place -- especially against divisional opponents.

Lastly, achieving 12-plus wins in the NFL is easier said than done. The Chiefs are certainly the team to beat in 2024-25, but they can still achieve their goal of winning another Super Bowl without reaching a dozen wins in the regular season.

While the over of 11.5 wins would be an imposing line for most teams, the Chiefs are unquestionably capable of making it 12-plus wins in six of their last seven seasons.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.