NFL

NFL Win Totals: Will the Buccaneers Sail to 8 Wins?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting to the postseason last year -- and winning a playoff game -- was a big surprise as Tom Brady was out of the fold and Baker Mayfield stepped in as the starting quarterback.

This makes four consecutive seasons with Tampa Bay in the playoffs, and three of the last four years have been winning seasons. The Buccaneers didn't do much in the offseason as they mostly focused on extensions with their key players.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL win totals, Tampa Bay has a win total of 7.5. Will the Bucs reach eight wins for the fifth straight season?

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 Win Total Odds

Buccaneers Over/Under 7.5 Wins

  • Over: -150
  • Under: +122

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +138
Odds to Win the NFC South: +290
Odds to Win the NFC: +2800 (tied for 9th)
Super Bowl Odds: +5500 (tied for 20th)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • Liam Coen replaces Dave Canales as Offensive Coordinator
  • Josh Grizzard hired as Pass Game Coordinator
  • Bryan McClendon hired as Wide Receivers Coach
  • Kevin Carberry hired as Offensive Line Coach

Why Buccaneers Could Win Over 7.5 Games

  • Same Team, Same Success
  • Run Game on the Rise
  • Defensive Front Could Take Off

Perhaps the biggest argument for the Buccaneers going over 7.5 wins is that this is nearly the same team from last year. If Tampa Bay reached nine wins and the playoffs last season, what's stopping them from doing it again in 2024?

As previously mentioned, most of the Bucs' offseason focus was on dealing out extensions. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Antoine Winfield Jr. were all given hefty extensions. This included Winfield becoming the highest paid defensive back in NFL history.

There were minor losses during the offseason, such as Shaquil Barrett, Devin White, and Carlton Davis departing. White and Davis were up and down last season, each earning Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades of under 60.0. Barrett was a staple of this defense for years, providing two double-digit sack seasons since 2019 while consistently finishing with PFF grades above 68.0.

Still, Tampa Bay made a solid effort to replace Barrett by signing Randy Gregory and drafting Chris Braswell in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

If this is mostly the same team, doing the usual and reaching eight wins is in the cards. We can present a better argument than this, though.

We could see the Buccaneers grow in several areas -- specifically two. First, let's start with the backfield. The run game has been a sore spot for a couple of years, with Tampa finishing last in yards per carry in back-to-back seasons. Tampa Bay made some investments in the draft to shore up the ground game.

The Bucs selected running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round and center Graham Barton in the first round. In terms of run-game efficiency, Rachaad White came up short as the lead back in 2023; pairing him with Irving could yield better results.

Plus, the interior offensive line could get better with a first-round talent filling a problem spot. Center Ryan Jensen consistently battled major injuries over the last two seasons. Backups had to fill that spot, and with Jensen retiring, Tampa Bay moved their chips to the center of the table by selecting Barton.

Along with the run game holding some promise, the defensive front seven has intriguing young talent that could bloom in 2024. This mostly concerns 2023 draft picks Calijah Kancey and YaYa Diaby. Both played significant roles in their rookie seasons.

Diaby led the team with 7.5 sacks in only seven starts. Kancey did not quite live up to expectations with a 46.6 PFF grade. With Kancey entering his second season, there's a chance he develops. He was highly touted as a prospect thanks to his quickness and pass-rushing.

The defensive line has intriguing potential, especially with Diaby's breakout rookie season. With an increased role, Diaby could become a well-known name and replace a lot of Barrett's production.

Why Buccaneers Could Win Under 7.5 Games

  • Interior Offensive Line Has Question Marks
  • Will Baker Mayfield Keep Going?
  • Uncertainty in the Secondary

While the aforementioned Barton was a wise investment on the offensive line, there's two sides of the coin to the interior offensive line. The Bucs addressed their need at center, but what about the guard spots?

Ben Bredeson was brought in as a free agent and will likely fill the left guard spot. He brings valuable experience after making 24 starts over the last two seasons. However, Bredeson struggled with a 42.1 PFF grade in his first year as a full-time starter.

The right guard spot isn't much better as Cody Mauch posted a 44.7 PFF grade in his rookie 2023 season. Of course, Mauch is still young and can develop. Still, based off what we've seen, there should be concern surrounding the interior offensive line.

Baker Mayfield is coming off arguably the best season of his career, but his play has been volatile throughout his career. For example, he finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 followed by ranking 27th in expected points added (EPA) in 2019.

The trend continued into the next two seasons as Mayfield was 16th in EPA for the 2020 campaign compared to 20th in the following year. Baker boasting the ninth-highest EPA in 2023 was very encouraging, and maybe a change of scenery is just what he needed. Still, we can't help but wonder about Baker's consistency.

Another worry lies on the defensive side of the ball. The secondary looks to be the weakest defensive unit entering the 2024 season -- mainly the cornerbacks.

Fortunately, the secondary still has Antoine Winfield Jr., one of the game's best safeties. However, Tampa Bay has a potential problem at cornerback.

Carlton Davis was traded to the Detroit Lions; the Buccaneers did little to replace the starter. They opted to draft safety Tykee Smith out of Georgia and signed cornerback Bryce Hall in free agency.

The starting corner spot opposite of Jamel Dean will likely be between Hall and Zyon McCollum. Hall was primarily in a backup role with the New York Jets over the last two seasons, and McCollum posted only a 52.1 PFF grade last season, which included nine starts.

There's obvious concern surrounding one of the starting cornerback spots. This could be a big blow to a secondary that already allowed the eighth-most passing yards per attempt last season.

Ultimately, I still like the Bucs' chances of reaching eight wins. Most of the roster is back, and there's actually some hope for the run game improving -- which was perhaps their biggest weakness from 2023.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.