NFL Win Totals: Is an 11-Win Season Within Reach for the Bengals in 2024?

Riley Thomas
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NFL Win Totals: Is an 11-Win Season Within Reach for the Bengals in 2024?

Following back-to-back appearances in the AFC Championship, the Cincinnati Bengals' 2023 season didn't go as planned. Cincy missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020 while finishing with a 9-8 record after back-to-back double-digit win seasons.

Injuries played a huge role in the deflating season. Joe Burrow missed the final seven games due to a wrist injury, and several key defensive players missed extended time, including cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt. As a franchise QB, Burrow's absence cannot be understated.

Cincinnati is entering the 2024 season healthy with some upgrades, mainly on the offensive line. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds, the Bengals have the second-shortest odds to win the AFC North (+170) and are tied for the fourth-shortest odds to win Super Bowl 59 (+1300).

FanDuel's NFL win totals have Cincy tabbed for 10.5 wins. Is the over or under looking like the best side to take? How will the Bengals fare following a disappointing 2023 season?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Full Team Name 2024 Win Total Odds

Cincinnati Bengals Over/Under 10.5 Wins

  • Over: -134
  • Under: +110

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -240
Odds to Win the AFC North: +170
Odds to Win the AFC: +700
Super Bowl Odds: +1300 (tied for 4th-best)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • Dan Pitcher replacing Brian Callahan at Offensive Coordinator
  • Brad Kragthorpe replacing Dan Pitcher at Quarterbacks Coach
  • Jordan Kovacs replacing Robert Livington at Secondary/Safeties Coach

Why Bengals Could Win Over 10.5 Games (-134)

  • Joe Burrow is Healthy
  • Cincinnati Added to the Offensive Line
  • The Secondary is Teeming With Talent

Of the two sides, I'm liking the over. Most importantly, the Bengals have their franchise quarterback back in action. Many analyzed Burrow's injury throughout the offseason, suggesting he could deal with a lingering wrist issue. His progress has been promising so far as a pitch count has not been present, and offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher stated he is feeling good about where Burrow is at, "Really happy. He's got all his range and power."

Burrow was fourth in MVP voting in the 2022 season. When healthy, he is one of the game's top quarterbacks. This is probably the strongest supporting point for the over. An elite QB is back in action in a league that's often ruled by quarterback play.

Additionally, Cincinnati continues to try to improve the offensive line. Those same efforts were present ahead of the 2023 season. The O-line still left much to be desired in pass protection, finishing with the fifth-worst pass block win rate, according to ESPN.

The Stripes reacted by bringing in veteran tackle Trent Brown to man the right side of the line. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Brown had an exceptional 2023 season with a 80.2 grade. Cincy also used their first-round draft capital by selecting Amarius Mims out of Georgia. While Mims started in only eight games throughout his collegiate career, the talent is clearly present in his athletic 6-foot-8 frame. Mims has a very intriguing pass-pro upside and could eventually become a star in the Queen City.

There's a good chance that the Bengals' pass pro finally improves in 2024, making the passing game even more dangerous.

On defense, Cincinnati elected to get younger at cornerback. Chidobe Awuzie signed with the Tennessee Titans, leaving the room to Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner II. Taylor-Britt has been a solid starter since his rookie season in 2022, and Turner has intriguing upside as he enters his second season. Jordan Battle had an excellent rookie season, posting a 82.5 PFF grade. It felt like Battle should have made more than seven starts last season, and we could finally see that come to fruition in 2024. Adding Geno Stone was also a sneaky good signing in free agency.

Overall, this secondary could be better off with plenty of upside in a young room. The play of Turner could be X-factor on defense in the upcoming season.

The Bengals went 12-4 in 2022. I think this roster is plenty capable of reaching 11 wins. The passing game still has firepower with Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. The front seven of the defense remains solid, and the secondary could only improve. Cincinnati also has the sixth-easiest schedule in 2024, aiding their chances of going over 10.5 wins.

Why Bengals Could Win Under 10.5 Games (+110)

  • The Running Back Room is Shaky
  • Seeking a Consistent Third Target
  • The Defensive Line Could Lack a Run-Stuffer

Despite having ESPN's ninth-best run block win rate in 2023, the Bengals still totaled the fewest rushing yards per game and the third-fewest rushing attempts each contest. The efficiency wasn't much better with the 11th-fewest rushing yards per carry.

Some of this can be credited to up-and-down play from the running back room. Cincinnati did little to address this position in the offseason. If anything, it's gotten even worse. Joe Mixon was traded to the Houston Texans. Mixon didn't have an overly impressive 2023 season, but he still logged 4.0 yards per carry.

How did the Bengals respond? They added Zack Moss, who had a career-high 794 rushing yards and 4.3 yards per carry in 2023. Moss was solid last season, but he didn't do much prior to 2023. This is a risk, and the Bengals don't have much behind him.

Second-year back Chase Brown will likely get some work, but he's pretty much a wild card after totaling only 179 yards last year. Overall, this running back room could be no better in 2024.

Tyler Boyd also headed for the Titans, opening up the third receiver spot. This is another big mystery as rookie Jermaine Burton, Trenton Irwin, Charlie Jones, and Andrei Iosivas will likely compete for the spot. This squad also has a new tight end in Mike Gesicki. Outside of Chase and Higgins, we don't really know who else will contribute to the passing game.

Finally, the defense's big concern could be in the interior defensive line. D.J. Reader was another offseason loss, so Cincy signed Sheldon Rankins and drafted Kris Jenkins Jr. in the second round. Rankins is known as a three-technique pass rusher that can struggle against the run. Jenkins is on the smaller side of defensive tackles at 6-foot-3, 299 pounds. He will probably lack the size to eat blocks in the run game. The same can be side for veteran tackle B.J. Hill.

This defense could sorely miss Reader. They didn't do a great job of finding another quality nose tackle. The interior is essentially loaded up with pass rushers. This could come back to bite them as teams could find plenty of success running in between the tackles.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.