NFL Win Totals: Can the Raiders Continue Making Progress in 2024?

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
NFL Win Totals: Can the Raiders Continue Making Progress in 2024?

The Las Vegas Raiders have been in Sin City for more than four years now, but 2024 will truly give way to a new era.

Las Vegas is coming off a campaign wherein they allowed just 19.5 PPG. Simply, it was the first time the Raiders landed within the NFL's top-10 scoring defenses since 2002 (their most recent Super Bowl appearance).

Of course, much of the improvement in Southern Nevada can be attributed to team owner Mark Davis swapping Josh McDaniels for Antonio Pierce -- a former Super Bowl winning linebacker -- at head coach mid season despite the exorbitant contractual cost. Still, it was a change that was absolutely necessary for Raider Nation.

Notably, six quarterbacks were taken by the time Las Vegas was first on the clock at the 2024 NFL Draft, so the Raiders went without selecting a signal-caller; that lines up either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell to take the snaps going forward. FanDuel lists Minshew with -225 odds to start Week 1.

Let's dive into FanDuel's NFL win totals and discuss the reasons why Las Vegas could go over or under their projected win total in 2024.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Las Vegas Raiders 2024 Win Total Odds

Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under 6.5 Wins

  • Over: -122
  • Under: +100

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +360
Odds to Win the AFC West: +900
Odds to Win the AFC: +4800
Super Bowl Odds: +10000 (26th-best)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • Antonio Pierce moving from Interim Head Coach (replacing Josh McDaniels) to Head Coach
  • Luke Getsy replacing Mick Lombardi at Offensive Coordinator
  • Marvin Lewis hired as Asst. Head Coach (vacant in 2023)

Why Raiders Could Win Over 6.5 Games

  • A stout defensive group
  • Experience and talent along the offensive line
  • Veteran leadership

There's no denying that Las Vegas built considerable steam down the stretch of 2023. Headed for the new year, the Raiders are still the franchise to most recently defeat the world-champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Raider Nation appeared to have a good thing going under interim head coach Antonio Pierce in 2023, so that "interim" tag was subsequently stripped off. In particular, Pierce invigorated a defense in Las Vegas that wound up allowing just 19.5 PPG.

Several key players are back for the Silver and Black's defense this season, such as Maxx Crosby, Tre'von Moehrig and Tyree Wilson. From there, the Raiders signed stout defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to a four-year deal. Simply, Vegas should be able to get after opposing quarterbacks in a way that would make the late-Al Davis show that Cheshire grin.

Whether Minshew or O'Connell winds up taking the snaps, either signal-caller will have a solid offensive line protecting him. From left to right, the Raiders are expected to start Kolton Miller, rookie Jackson Powers-Johnson (selected 44th overall at the 2024 NFL Draft), Andre James, Dylan Parham and Thayer Munford up front. Of course, adding two talented tight ends to this group, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, doesn't hurt one bit.

Transparently, reaching seven wins is not a daunting task compared to other numbers in this market, and Las Vegas has the on-field leadership to do it. All-Pro receiver Davante Adams will set the tone on offense while "Mad Maxx" captains the defense. When it comes to both production and character, these are two of the best in the business.

Why Raiders Could Win Under 6.5 Games

  • Lack of coaching experience
  • Revolving door at quarterback
  • Ninth-toughest schedule

Raider Nation seems uniformly thrilled to have Pierce as head coach, but there were some moments in 2023 where he appeared overmatched from an offensive perspective.

Coming over from the Chicago Bears, Luke Getsy will take over as offensive coordinator in Las Vegas. He replaces Mick Lombardi, who is now a senior offensive assistant with the San Francisco 49ers.

As noted, FanDuel Sportsbook has the quarterbacking competition between Minshew and O'Connell closer than you might anticipate. Presently, Minshew has -225 odds (carrying a 69.8% implied probability) to win the starting QB job for Week 1.

After five NFL seasons, Minshew shows a career 90.2 Passer Rating (on 1,423 lifetime attempts). For O'Connell, he produced a 83.9 Passer Rating as a rookie (343 pass attempts).

Vegas will need consistency at football's most important position. As the old adage goes, having two starting quarterbacks is the same as having no starting quarterbacks.

Seven wins might not seem like a tall ask on a 18-week regular season calendar, but the Raiders play in a talented division. In addition to the defending-champion Chiefs, the Los Angeles Chargers -- now under head coach Jim Harbaugh -- will be tough in 2024. As for the Denver Broncos, I have genuinely no idea what to expect.

When looking at the Raiders' entire crop of 2024 opponents, the upcoming competition produced a collective .512 winning percentage last season, which registers as the ninth-most difficult schedule. Simply, Las Vegas -- a team that numberFire lists 23rd overall (-1.08 nERD) on their power rankings -- will have to earn each and every win.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.