NFL

NFL Win Total Betting: Will the Jaguars Win at Least 9 Games in 2024?

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath
NFL Win Total Betting: Will the Jaguars Win at Least 9 Games in 2024?

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been a bit of a rollercoaster in recent years. The team seemingly hit rock bottom with a 1-15 season in 2020, only to find a new basement in the subsequent 2021 season. They rebounded the following year to make the playoffs, but in 2022, they fell short of the playoffs with a last-minute collapse.

Entering the 2023 season, the Jaguars seem to be at a crossroads. Can they rise to their potential with a franchise quarterback in tow, or was their 2022 playoff appearance a mirage of hope for a franchise that hasn't been able to get out of its own way?

Let's take a look at the Jags' odds on the NFL win totals market at FanDuel Sportsbook and see how bettors feel about their outlook this year.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 Win Total Odds

Jaguars Over/Under 8.5 Wins

  • Over: -115
  • Under: -105

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +124
Odds to Win the AFC South: +270 (2nd)
Odds to Win the AFC: +2300 (10th)
Super Bowl Odds: +4500 (18th)

Why Jacksonville Could Win Over 8.5 Games

  • Trevor Lawrence Is Very Good
  • They've Won 9 Games Two Seasons in a Row
  • They Are Healthier Entering the Year

The Jags have their quarterback of the future in Trevor Lawrence, who they signed to a massive extension this offseason. With Lawrence under center for the foreseeable future, the Jags should have a relatively "safe" floor of wins for years to come -- competent quarterback play is the single-most important factor in a team's success, and Lawrence should provide that for Jacksonville.

In the two years since Jacksonville fired Urban Meyer -- arguably the worst head coach hire of all-time -- the team has won at least nine games in each season despite the roster construction issues that led to them having the first overall draft pick in back-to-back years. The franchise was in a truly dire situation for multiple years, and now they're close to putting those troubles behind them.

The combination of Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson gives the franchise the stability it has yearned for. Lawrence is already fourth in franchise history in passing yards and touchdowns after his first three seasons in the league, and he has a shot to pass David Garrard on those leaderboards with another solid campaign in 2024.

Last year's team still scraped out nine wins despite dealing with an unfortunate volume of injuries.

Lawrence battled through multiple ailments, particularly in the back-to-back-to-back games he played against the AFC North in the back half of the year. Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain in an overtime game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 13, made it back in time to play against the Cleveland Browns' elite defense in Week 14 , and then suited up again through injury to help his team take on the Baltimore Ravens' league-best defense the following week (where he suffered yet another injury). Not to mention the knee injury he had suffered earlier in the year as well as the shoulder injury that knocked him out of a game later in the year.

That's on top of injuries to each of his top receivers. Zay Jones missed half of the season with knee issues and appeared to be limited by those injuries when he was cleared to play. Calvin Ridley spent a good chunk of the year finding his sea legs before suffering a knee injury of his own in a collision with the goal post. And Christian Kirk missed the last third of the year after suffering a core muscle injury.

While Jones and Ridley will not be returning, the team should at least be healthier entering the year. Gabriel Davis was signed to fill Jones' high-volume role while the team spent first round draft capital on wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. to add a speedy deep threat to an offense that craved field-stretching ability a season ago.

Lawrence is a good enough quarterback to get his team to nine wins if just a couple things break right. He's healthier entering this year and will have two new teammates adding an exciting element to the offense. It's not too hard to picture another nine-win season from a team that's already managed that many Ws in back-to-back years.

Why Jacksonville Could Win Under 8.5 Games

  • The Offense May Be Worse
  • Trent Baalke Is Not Good at His Job
  • The Defense Could Be Rough

The Jags should be healthier entering the 2024 season, and that's objectively a good thing. But being healthier doesn't necessarily mean they'll be better.

For starters, it's not clear that replacing Zay Jones with Gabriel Davis is even a lateral move -- let alone an upgrade. Davis spent the first four years of his career playing in one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league, yet he could never establish himself as a consistent producer on a week-to-week basis. And while Brian Thomas had a fantastic final season at LSU, he was a bit of a one-year wonder archetype of player who played as the WR2 on his own team. Both players have an impressive combination of size and speed, but neither has looked like a reliable NFL wide receiver yet.

Which cuts to another part of the concern -- the roster construction under General Manager Trent Baalke could be a major issue. Leaving aside that the San Francisco 49ers spent years circling the drain under Baalke's leadership, the Jags have already made repeated questionable decisions since he took over.

The team has routinely handed out massive contracts to middling free agents (Jones, Kirk, and Davis were all offered top-of-the-market deals) since Baalke took over, essentially paying a premium for average on-field returns. The team's major draft capital investments other than Lawrence have yielded modest returns. The first three picks from the Jags' 2023 draft class produced PFF's 79th-ranked tackle, a backup blocking tight end, and a backup running back who managed to create 4 turnovers on just 50 offensive touches.

Between misses in the draft and overpaying for average free agent talent, the Jaguars are left with a thin roster, making them a bad injury week away from looking really bad. We saw glimpses of that last year -- their defense gave up 491 yards of offense to the Jake Browning-led Bengals in just one of several instances of complete collapses throughout the year.

Josh Allen did a lot to hold the defense up by himself last year, contributing 17.5 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss for a team that finished the year with just 40 total sacks (eighth-fewest). If Allen misses time, we could see Jacksonville's defense fall apart in a hurry this year.

Good quarterbacks can mitigate the difficulties that bad defenses create for their teams -- but only to a certain point. And if the offensive personnel takes a step back from last year, the Jags could have a very tough time overcoming even a mildly bad defense. If both the offense and the defense get worse, the Jags could find themselves back near the top of the NFL Draft again in 2025.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.