NFL MVP Betting: Can Josh Allen Take Home This Year's Award?

The Buffalo Bills have been a team on the cusp of greatness over the past four seasons. They have won at least 10 games in each of those seasons, been AFC East Champions in three straight years, and have been a mainstay in the playoffs during this run.

Quarterback Josh Allen has been the driving force in the franchise’s resurgence. Following his breakout campaign in 2020, the Bills have become one of the best passing offenses across the entire league. Only Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Justin Herbert have produced more passing yards than Allen since that breakout. And, in that same stretch of time, Allen has rushed for more yards (1,946) than all three of those passers combined (1,118) and for just one fewer rushing touchdown than their collective total (21). He has been an offensive juggernaut recently.

His voluminous offensive output has yet to culminate in more than a couple of Pro Bowl nods, but that could change in 2023. Allen has a legitimate chance to win the AP NFL MVP award this season, and his +700 number from the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook ties him with Mahomes and Joe Burrow as the favorites to take home the trophy by the season’s end.

Allen has been on the MVP periphery in recent years, garnering votes during the 2020 and 2022 seasons. Just based on that proximity, it’s not hard to envision him taking the leap in 2023. So, what exactly would an MVP season have to look like for Allen?

Outlining an MVP Season

It’s helpful that Allen has already been MVP-adjacent; we won’t need to use too much imagination to envision a winning campaign.

Allen has averaged a 17-game pace of 4,591 passing yards, 37 passing scores, and 14 interceptions since his 2020 breakout. He has averaged another 121 rushes for 675 yards and 7 more scores on the ground in that time as well. In terms of sheer offensive output, not many guys in the entire league can compete with him.

The most glaring difference between Allen’s play and the play of previous winners has been Allen’s susceptibility to turnovers. Over the past seven seasons, MVP-winners have averaged just 7.7 interceptions in their award-winning years. And of those seasons, only Mahomes – who has thrown 12 interceptions in each of his winning seasons – has thrown more than 8 picks.

Allen’s 2.2% interception rate isn’t too painful, but because of his passing volume, he has averaged a 17-game pace of 14 interceptions per year. It looks like he’ll need to trim that down in 2023 to garner serious attention as an MVP candidate.

“Solving the Middle of the Field”

In drafting tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, it looks like the Bills are taking steps to help stymie Allen’s interception production. According to Pro Football Focus’ charting data, five of Allen’s interceptions last season came on passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

As we outlined in our piece on Kincaid’s prospects of winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, the 2023 first-round pick was a machine out of the slot for Utah in college. And Bills general manager Brandon Beane even said the team drafted him “to solve the middle of the field” in his post-draft press conference.

That pick begins to make even more sense when you look at who Allen was targeting when he threw many of his interceptions: Dawson Knox (3), Cole Beasley (2), Isaiah McKenzie (2), Jamison Crowder (1), and James Cook (1). Almost all of those players operated at or near the line of scrimmage in 2022, and nearly all of them played in the slot or the middle of the field (where 7 of Allen’s interceptions occurred). The team clearly hopes that by installing a big-bodied, nimble tight end into their passing offense, they can move past the need for the smaller slot receivers that have struggled for them in the middle of the field. Eliminating interceptions on shorter passes and passes to the middle of the field would do wonders for Allen’s MVP bid this season.

While the Bills’ slot receivers were certainly an issue last season, it was outside receiver Gabriel Davis (6) who was the biggest offender when it came to coughing up interceptions. Davis will still feature prominently in Buffalo’s 2023 offense but will hopefully play more consistently with another year of experience under his belt, and he is a full year removed from the ankle injury he dealt with for much of the 2022 season.

Plus, Davis draws targets further down the field than the rest of the Bills’ pass-catchers, where interceptions naturally happen at higher rates.

Reimagining the Red Zone

Another thorn in Allen’s side in 2022 was his five red-zone interceptions, which led the entire league. The Bills’ trust in Allen near the end zone has certainly generated plenty of touchdowns for Allen himself, but his turnovers in that area of the field have been costly for the team. Fortunately, it looks like the team has taken steps to address this concern as well by signing veteran running backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray after letting Devin Singletary walk in free agency.

Since Allen’s breakout season, the Bills have struggled to find an effective short-yardage back to help them keep drives alive and punch in goal-line scores. Singletary was the team’s primary option out of the backfield but scored just 3 times on 38 red zone rushing attempts. Only Tyler Allgeier of the Atlanta Falcons, a fifth-round pick who found the field only after injuries to his teammates, had fewer scores on as many opportunities. Singletary averaged just 2.5 yards per carry in the red zone and generated just a single yard on 7 opportunities within the 5-yard line.

Both Harris and Murray offer significant upgrades over Singletary in that regard. In terms of mass alone, Harris (213 lbs) and Murray (230) are significantly larger than Singletary (203 lbs), and both have much better track records in the red zone. Harris is just one season removed from a 15-score year with the New England Patriots, and Murray punched in 6 touchdowns on just 12 red zone rush attempts in 2022.

Having running backs to lean on could draw touchdowns away from Josh Allen and impact his end-of-season numbers. However, their presence should greatly help reduce the turnovers Allen produces in that area by taking some of the pressure off of him and will be a net positive for the Bills. In other words, a more balanced approach to offense in the red zone will put Allen and his team in a better position to succeed with his opportunities.

Bills’ 2023 Outlook

Cutting interceptions out of the offense will help the team as a whole in 2023 -- not just Allen’s bottom line. Turning red-zone turnovers into points could be a massive swing for Buffalo.

The divisional betting market on the FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Bills as favorites (+130) to take home the AFC East this season, and only the Kansas City Chiefs (+350) have better odds to win the AFC than the Bills (+450) in the conference odds market. With Allen at the helm, the Bills are expected to be one of the top contenders for the Lombardi Trophy in 2023.

Playing for a good team has its advantages for MVP hopefuls. Since 2016, the worst record a quarterback has posted in an MVP-winning campaign was Matt Ryan’s 11-5 season with the Atlanta Falcons, in which Ryan’s incredible offensive output overcame the team’s mediocre defense. MVP winners have usually helped get their teams to 13 or 14 wins in their winning seasons.

The Bills had one of the strongest defenses in the league a season ago. They tied for the seventh-fewest yards per play allowed (5.1) while pacing for the second-fewest points allowed per game (17.9) until their Week 16 game was eventually canceled. Their defense should look pretty similar to open the 2023 season, meaning the team likely won’t be losing many games on account of their play on that side of the ball.

Allen’s offensive firepower and the team’s strong defense make for a potent combination in 2023, and that should provide a solid baseline to Allen’s MVP bid. The team has taken multiple steps this offseason to address the situations that have led to his higher interception totals, which could result in an even more efficient and productive season from the 27-year-old. He has all the tools necessary to take home the AP NFL Most Valuable Player Award in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.