NFL Draft Position Betting: Will Brian Thomas Jr. Fall Outside of the Top-17 Picks?

LSU has been a factory for NFL talent at the wide receiver position. They have as impressive a track record as any college, producing talents like Odell Beckham, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. The Tigers are producing more elite talent at wideout for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Malik Nabers is tracking to be a top-six pick, but he's not the only Bayou Bengal preparing to hear his name called on draft night. Brian Thomas Jr. has seen his stock steadily rise since the end of the 2023 college football season.

Following the perceived top-three receiver prospects of Marvin Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Rome Odunze, there's a steep drop-off at the position. Thomas is on track to be the fourth wideout off of the board. The question is how high will the former LSU Tiger go?

FanDuel Sportsbook has NFL Draft odds for the pick position of various first-round prospects. Thomas is one of the players with lines available. FanDuel has his draft position set at 17.5 with the over favored (-172).

Will Thomas go over or under 17.5? Here's a deep dive for each side.

NFL Draft Odds

Brian Thomas Jr. Draft Position Over/Under

Why Brian Thomas Jr. Could Go Before Pick 17.5 (+128)

Thomas didn't find much success at LSU during his first two seasons, totaling only 359 and 361 receiving yards over his first two seasons. With plenty of targets to go around led by Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, Thomas had his breakout year in 2023, racking up 1,177 receiving yards and a remarkable 17 touchdowns.

The accolades followed as Thomas earned third-team AP All-American and second-team All-SEC. The LSU product then followed his outstanding 2023 season with an exceptional NFL Combine. Thomas ran a 4.33 40-yard dash and had a 38.5-inch vertical jump and a 10'6" broad jump. According to NFL.com, Thomas finished with a 92nd percentile athleticism score -- the second-highest mark among receiver prospects.

One could argue that the upside for Thomas calls for a selection within the top 17 picks. He has elite measurables in a 6-foot-3 frame. Several scouting reports rave about Thomas' ability as a deep threat thanks to his blazing speed and ball-tracking.

The New York Jets have been one team highlighted as a potential suitor. Dane Brugler of The Athletic said the Jets have "done a lot of work on Brian Thomas Jr." New York holds only one first-round pick and does not draft again until the third round, meaning the 10th overall pick would be spent on Thomas.

This would easily go under 17.5, but it feels pretty unlikely. This would be a major reach according to most draft boards, including Pro Football Focus (PFF), which has Thomas as the 25th-best prospect. Too many mock drafts and boards have Thomas outside of the top 17, in line with the +128 odds for the under.

Why Brian Thomas Jr. Could Go After Pick 17.5 (-172)

As the -172 line suggests, the over is far more likely. Thomas has been projected around the 18th pick to the early 20s for months now. The upside is there thanks to his athleticism, but there are still several questions.

Thomas produced in only one of three seasons in college. Was this a one-off, or does he have more in the tank? It was a great situation with a Heisman QB making the throws. These are legitimate concerns.

Plus, there are real knocks on his game. This includes underwhelming physicality considering his 6-foot-3 frame, and his route tree and yards after the catch have been a bit lacking. Thomas' athleticism should allow him to excel when it comes to running routes and making things happen in the open field, which makes these flaws all the more frustrating.

Still, Thomas is worth the first-round grade. His deep threat ability and speed in a big body are undeniable. His athleticism also allows plenty of room for growth, including running routes.

The former Tiger had a visit with the Buffalo Bills, who own the 28th pick. I highly doubt that Thomas would slip this far, but Buffalo could trade up. With that said, I would also be surprised if the Bills could trade up more than 10 picks.

Across the board, going after the 17th pick is the safe bet for Thomas. Following the Chicago Bears and Jets at picks 9 and 10, there's a long stretch of teams who have much larger needs outside of a wide receiver. Considering Thomas' stock and the teams picking from 11 to 17, I would take over 17.5.

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