NFL

NFL Draft Betting: Top Three Picks Exact Order

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
NFL Draft Betting: Top Three Picks Exact Order

The 2024 NFL Draft is on the horizon, allowing us to finally see where the incoming rookies will land. Mock drafts have flooded the internet since the Kansas City Chiefs were crowned Super Bowl champions in February as fans and analysts alike try to predict each pick of the draft.

Entering this year's draft, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Caleb Williams will be selected by the Chicago Bears with the No. 1 overall pick, indicated by his -10000 odds to be taken first overall on FanDuel Sportsbook. Ahead of the draft, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering an endless amount of markets in its NFL Draft odds, including the exact order of the top three picks.

With quarterbacks expected to dominate the early portion of the draft -- similar to most years -- let's take a look at the odds for the top three picks and discuss the most likely orders for the first three picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

NFL Draft Odds

2024 NFL Draft - Top 3 Overall Picks Exact Order
Odds
1. Caleb Williams 2. Jayden Daniels 3. Drake Maye+125
1. Caleb Williams 2. Drake Maye 3. Jayden Daniels+250
1. Caleb Williams 2. Drake Maye 3. J.J. McCarthy+500
1. Caleb Williams 2. Jayden Daniels 3. J.J. McCarthy+650
1. Caleb Williams 2. J.J. McCarthy 3. Jayden Daniels+1800
1. Caleb Williams 2. J.J. McCarthy 3. Drake Maye+1800
1. Caleb Williams 2. Jayden Daniels 3. Marvin Harrison Jr.+2800

1. Caleb Williams 2. Jayden Daniels 3. Drake Maye (+125)

Following the departure of Justin Fields via trade this offseason, the Bears are primed to take a quarterback to begin the draft. Barring an unforeseen change of events, all signs point toward Williams being the selection when Chicago is on the clock.

After Williams is taken, it remains to be seen what the teams behind the Bears elect to do. The Washington Commanders and New England Patriots -- the teams with the second and third overall picks -- are also in need of addressing the quarterback position, but their preference of this year's class of quarterbacks is unknown.

There's also a chance the Commanders or Patriots prefer to move back in the draft and let another team take one of the premier prospects at quarterback. Regardless of what teams have the No. 2 and No. 3 picks on draft night, the favored order of the top three picks is Williams, Jayden Daniels, and then Drake Maye.

This order makes sense given the fact that Daniels has the shortest odds to be the second overall pick (-155) in the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns while also logging 1,134 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in 2023 at LSU to become the latest winner of the Heisman Trophy.

In this scenario, either the Commanders or another team views Daniels as the second-best quarterback available in this year's draft. At the same time, it would mean that the Patriots -- or a team who trades up -- prefers Maye over someone like J.J. McCarthy at No. 3.

1. Caleb Williams 2. Drake Maye 3. Jayden Daniels (+250)

The second scenario for the top three picks in this year's draft involves switching Maye and Daniels for the No. 2 and No. 3 picks. Williams remains Chicago's preferred choice of the bunch, but what if the Commanders (or another team) believe Maye is the second-best quarterback?

Before the 2023 campaign began for college football, the consensus top two quarterbacks were Williams and Maye. But after airing it out for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns in 2022, Maye finished with 3,608 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2023 to finish his collegiate career at North Carolina.

At the moment, Maye has the second-shortest odds to be the second overall pick (+135) and the shortest odds to be the third overall pick (+100). Besides his strong arm and athletic ability, Maye is the second-youngest quarterback among the consensus top five signal-callers in this year's draft.

Once Williams and Maye are off of the board, will the Patriots -- or the team selecting third -- want Daniels over McCarthy? Daniels is coming off a stellar campaign in 2023 at LSU while McCarthy is the youngest quarterback prospect and is coming off a win in the National Championship.

1. Caleb Williams 2. Drake Maye 3. J.J. McCarthy (+500)

Of the combinations available, the order with the third-shortest odds (+500) for the top three picks is Williams, Maye, and then McCarthy. Similar to the last scenario, Williams and Maye are viewed as the top two options at quarterback, making it an argument between Daniels, McCarthy, and the rest of the field for who is the third preferred choice.

Instead of Daniels remaining in the top three, McCarthy becomes the No. 3 pick in the draft in this outcome. With weeks to go until the draft begins, McCarthy has the third-shortest odds to be the second overall pick (+1000), the third-shortest odds to be the third overall pick (+250), and the second-shortest odds to be the fourth overall pick (+400).

McCarthy is an interesting prospect as his numbers and production aren't going to match those of Williams, Maye, or Daniels due to Michigan being a run-heavy team that had an elite defense. However, McCarthy leads the top four consensus quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy) in completion percentage (63.4%), passing yards (780), and passing touchdowns (8) when under pressure in 2023, via PFF.

There have been plenty of reports that there are a handful of teams interested in McCarthy and believe he's one of the premier signal-callers available in this class. A scenario where Williams, Maye, and McCarthy are the first three players to hear their name called would certainly create a unique situation where Daniels would be available with the No. 4 pick.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.