NFL Betting Picks, Player Props, and Daily Fantasy Plays: Week 17 (Packers at Vikings)

NFL games don't get much more impactful than Sunday night's matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings.

Both sides are 7-8 on the season, and a loss here essentially ruins playoff dreams for the defeated side.

Of note, rookie quarterback Jaren Hall will be starting for the Vikings in lieu of Nick Mullens, and T.J. Hockenson is out for the remainder of the season.

On the flip side, Jaire Alexander is suspended for this matchup, but the Vikings' offense has an uphill battle.

The total is 43.5 points with the Vikings favored by 1.5 points, per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Packers at Vikings Betting Picks

Under 43.5 (-110)

Based on numberFire's metrics, the Packers rank 9th in adjusted offense (6th in passing and 19th on the ground). They're 26th defensively (29th against the pass and 22nd against the rush).

The Vikings are a top-10 rush defense (9th) and a middling pass D (17th) to rank 13th overall.

Of course, how their offense fares under Jaren Hall is a big unknown.

In the preseason, Hall dropped back 65 times and was sacked 9 times (a massive 13.8% sack rate, more than twice the overall preseason average of 6.2%).

His completion percentage over expectation was -5.2%, per NextGenStats, and his EPA per drop back was -0.44 (compared to the league-average of -0.07).

Hall's average depth of target (aDOT) was only 6.7 in the preseason and 4.0 over his 10 passes this regular season.

Although he has generated 101 yards on his 10 attempts this season, he gave up a strip-sack on his second drop back. Hall can move around and extend plays -- for better and worse.

The Packers are 10th in pressure rate generated, so we should see some excitement either way.

There's a path to short fields for the Packers if they can generate turnovers, but given the offensive downgrade expectation here for Minnesota -- especially if Hall plays with a low aDOT -- and the Packers facing a tough defense, it's the under that is most appealing to me while both teams focus on minimizing mistakes with the playoff implications at stake.

Packers at Vikings Player Props

Aaron Jones Any Time Touchdown (+190)

While scoring expectations are relatively low in this game, things set up well for Aaron Jones to find the end zone this week.

He had 8 red zone carries last week even with A.J. Dillon back in action, and in games where Jones has played at least 40.0% of the Packers' snaps, he has a 58.7% red zone rushing share and has been targeted on 16.7% of the team's targets.

Combined, he's been the focal point on 42.1% of the team's overall red zone plays when he's played extended snaps.

Packers at Vikings DFS Single-Game Strategy

Across a pretty robust sample of games with totals between 42.5 and 46.5 and spreads of 4.5 points or tighter, a few key trends stand out since the start of last year when looking at past perfect lineups on FanDuel.

Namely, these games play a lot like the average game, which is to be expected. That means the single-game perfect lineup trends tend to apply here.

Some notable tweaks apply, of course. WRs are MVPs at a 28.8% clip in games similar to this, up from a 24.9% MVP rate over the full sample (updated through this season). RB MVP odds drop from 27.2% to 23.2%.

Jaren Hall ($13,500) has enough wild card in him to make sense for the MVP slot, especially if he scrambles. He nearly scored on a goal line scramble against the Falcons but was stopped at the one. numberFire's model projects him for a slate-high amount of points (15.9), in fact.

In two games with Mullens under center, the team still focused on Justin Jefferson ($15,000), who had a 29.9% target share in this span (10.0 targets per game for 112.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns). A robust 15 of his 20 targets in this split were at least 10 yards downfield.

Hall may not push the ball down the field based on his early returns in his NFL career, but getting a lot of volume while Jaire Alexander is out keeps Jefferson very much in the MVP conversation while Hockenson is out. My simulation model has Jefferson's MVP odds at 21.6%.

It stands to reason that Jordan Addison ($11,000) and K.J. Osborn ($9,000) would see extra targets within the offense with Hockenson out. Addison remained limited in practice Thursday. Osborn ran 90.0% of the routes last week, so he's very lively with or without Addison.

Johnny Mundt ($7,000) did run 37.5% of the team's routes last week with Hockenson's early exit. He had 1 catch on 3 targets, but all three were at least 10 yards downfield for a 19.3-yard aDOT. He's got life for the single-game slate.

Ty Chandler ($10,500) turned 33 snaps into just 8 carries and no targets last week, but he did see 3 of 4 red zone carries and scored on one of them. Overall he had a 64.7% snap rate and could see more carries if the team aims to protect Hall.

On the Packers' side of things, Jordan Love ($16,000) clocks in with the slate's highest salary. It's deserved. My model has his MVP odds at a slate-high 28.9%, though that's just beyond Hall's 26.9%.

The Packers' pass-catchers are all sorts of banged up, so we'll have to watch the inactives report close to kickoff.

numberFire's model projects Romeo Doubs ($11,500) for 7.7 FanDuel points as the main wideout not on the injury report. Jayden Reed ($12,500) is dealing with toe and chest injuries, and Dontayvion Wicks (chest and ankle) hasn't practiced to start the week while Christian Watson ($13,000) remains sidelined. Reed is a priority so long as he suits up.

Aaron Jones ($14,500) projects well (11.7 FanDuel points) after a hot start to Week 16's game. Jones wound up playing 54.0% of the team's snaps last week with A.J. Dillon ($10,000) playing just 19.0% in his return. Patrick Taylor ($6,000) had a 27.0% snap rate and could be a true differentiation play. As mentioned earlier, Jones has an underrated red zone role.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.