NFL Betting Picks for the Christmas Day Slate

No matter what the spreads may be, this year's Christmas Day NFL slate looks like a banger.

The first two games have spreads in the double digits with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles heavily favored over the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants, respectively. The spreads may not be tight, but those are two fun divisional rivalries with underdogs who have shown sparks recently.

Then we get to cap things off with a potential Super Bowl preview between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens. Even if that spread is also on the larger side, it features electric players on both sides and will be a true test of each team's strength.

Where can we find betting value across Monday's action? Let's dig into the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to see what stands out.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

49ers -5.5 (-110)

This isn't an anti-Ravens bet. The Ravens rank second in the power rankings of one of my models and fifth in the other. They're a great football team.

The 49ers just look better.

Part of it is injuries on Baltimore's side. Not only did the Ravens lose Keaton Mitchell for the season, but left tackle Ronnie Stanley is in concussion protocol, as well. Lamar Jackson's sack rate inflates to 7.6% with Stanley off the field versus 6.1% with him, according to Next-Gen Stats, and against this front, it's even more daunting.

The 49ers' offense is also in a tier of its own. They're averaging 0.40 Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted EPA model. No other team is above 0.23, and the Ravens are at 0.09. The gap between the 49ers and second place is the same as the gap from second place to 17th.

The Ravens' defense does figure to be a stiff foe. They rank second in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play.

However, in three other matchups against top-10 defenses, Brock Purdy has still averaged 0.24 Passing NEP per drop back, which would be tied for the league lead among individual quarterbacks if it were his full-season sample. That's even with key teammates missing for six quarters across those three games.

As a result, even with the Ravens viewed favorably, my model has the 49ers favored by more than a touchdown here. As painful as it is to bet against Jackson, I agree with the model in thinking the 49ers are undervalued.

Ravens/49ers over 46.5 (-115)

A team covering a large-ish spread implies points will be scored, so it shouldn't be a surprise my model is showing value in the over here, as well.

This total has already gone up, nullifying some of the appeal. It was at 45 on the lookahead line, and it has been bet up from 45.5 since markets re-opened. I still think there's more value to be had, though.

We talked before about the 49ers' offense. Their efficiency stats have helped them put up 30-plus points in 9 of 14 games this year, and they haven't scored less than 27 since they got Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel back off of injury. They'll do their part.

The Ravens should score, too, despite their offensive injuries. The 49ers' defense was missing several key contributors last week, and it helped the Arizona Cardinals put up 29 points against them.

We've also got delightful weather in the forecast. Current wind speed projections are just 3 mph, meaning the passing games won't face much resistance.

That's why both of these bets work individually. But because they're correlated, you could consider tying them together via a same-game parlay.

Doing so here leads to +229 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning FanDuel knows the two bets mesh well together; you won't catch them sleeping. I still think it's worth consideration, given the odds of the over hitting increase if we assume the 49ers cover the 5.5.

Which bets stand out to you across Monday's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.