NCAA Tournament Betting: San Diego State vs. Connecticut Picks, Prop Bets and Odds

Very few things on the sports calendar can match the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance has arrived, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

The Connecticut Huskies lived up to every ounce of the hype over the first weekend of NCAA Tournament play, winning two games by an average margin of 28.0 points. Following a close four-point win in the first round of play, the San Diego State Aztecs showcased their dominance with a 28-point victory over Yale to advance to the Sweet 16.

The clear storyline of this matchup is that it is a rematch of last year's national championship game, in which the Huskies won by 17 points. Early college basketball lines are suggesting a similar result as UConn is favored by 10.5 points. Will the Aztecs make this closer than expected and possibly get a measure of revenge for last season's devastating loss?

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

San Diego State vs. Connecticut Betting Odds

Date and Time: Thursday, March 28th, 7:39 p.m. ET

Spread: UConn -10.5 (-115)

Total: 135.5

Moneyline:

• UConn: -670
• San Diego State: +470

San Diego State vs. Connecticut Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

San Diego State

• numberFire Ranking: 18th
• Bart Torvik Ranking: 22nd
• KenPom Ranking: 17th
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 9th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 53rd
  • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 266th

Connecticut

• numberFire Ranking: 3rd
• Bart Torvik Ranking: 2nd
• KenPom Ranking: 1st
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 8th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 2nd
  • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 315th

San Diego State vs. Connecticut Best Bet

Under 135.5 (-105)

While both teams are certainly a lot different than they were in last year's matchup, I expect a similar result. The 2023 championship game reached 135 total points. San Diego State shot 59 field goals while UConn recorded 53. Neither mark was high, especially the Huskies' 53. For reference, Norfolk State totaled the fifth-fewest shots per game in the nation this season at 52.9.

Each team has a top-10 defense, per KenPom. Plus, they play at slow paces, ranking among the top 27% for the slowest tempos in the nation. Both squads also rank outside the top 160 in shots per contest. This will likely be a slow-paced game with few shots, which points me to the under.

However, these offenses are certainly capable of ruining things. UConn has pretty much dominated on all fronts through two tourney games and are logging 83.0 PPG while shooting 53.2% from the field in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs also come off a jaw-dropping scoring performance as they totaled 85 points while converting 52.7% of their shots and 13 of 27 three-point attempts (48.1%) in the second round.

Still, I believe each defense is good enough to make this a low-scoring game. First, let's look at the Huskies' D. San Diego State shoots 31.8% from three on the season (bottom 18%); it's unlikely that the Aztecs will continue to scorch the nets from deep.

Most of UConn's focus will likely be on defending the rim and slowing SDSU's Jaedon LeDee -- who averages 21.5 points per game (PPG). LeDee takes 42.7% of his shots at the rim, and 48.3% of his attempts are labeled as "others twos" by Bart Torvik.

The Huskies' interior defense has been unreal, holding opponents to only 21.0 points in the paint per game in the tournament. As EvanMiya's second-most valuable player in the nation, Donovan Clingan continues to be an absolute beast, sporting the third-best Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR) in college basketball (4.42). Connecticut is fully equipped to slow LeDee and the Aztecs.

The Huskies have made only 12 of 46 three-point shots (26.1%) in March Madness. Similar to UConn, San Diego State's concern could be defending the paint. The Aztecs are in the 84th percentile of opponent two-point percentage and two-point makes and attempts allowed per game. They've also allowed only 21.0 points in the paint per game in the tournament.

I like the under for this game, especially with the -105 odds.

San Diego State vs. Connecticut Prop Bet

Cam Spencer To Make 3+ Threes (+110)

As previously mentioned, San Diego State has a strong interior defense. Defending the three-point line has been a different story, with opponents totaling 23.4 three-point shots per game (bottom 27%).

UConn isn't shy about letting it fly from deep, logging 23.9 shots per game from beyond the arc (74th percentile) while shooting 36.1% from deep (83rd percentile). Cam Spencer (14.4 PPG) has been the gem of the three-point attack as he touts a team-best 44.0% shooting percentage.

Spencer takes 57.9% of his shots from three, which is first among qualifying players on the team. He averages a team-high 5.8 three-point attempts per game. Spencer has also drained at least three shots from beyond the arc in two of his last four games.

I like Spencer's chances of letting it rain from three against the Aztecs. Frankly, I'm worried about San Diego State's defensive backcourt for this one. Darrion Trammell (5'10") and Lamont Butler (6'2") man the Aztecs' starting guard spots. Due to his undersized frame, Trammell could be in trouble.

The senior guard has the second-worst DBPR on the team (1.71). Additionally, the Huskies have a big backcourt with Spencer (6'4") and Tristen Newton (6'5"). Spencer will likely get plenty of matchups with Trammell, and with the size advantage, Spencer can simply shoot right over the Aztecs' guard.

Spencer should have the green light to shoot from three in this one. Give me Spencer to make at least three shots from deep.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.