NBA Southwest Division Best Bets: Rockets Fail to Lift Off, Mavericks Bounce Back

Predicting NBA win totals is among the most popular future bets. With odds available for all 30 teams, there are bound to be terrific wagers available. Let's break down win totals by division, focusing today on the Western Conference's Southwest Division.

The Southwest was the weakest division in the stacked Western Conference last season. The Memphis Grizzlies were the only team to represent the division in the playoffs, and they fell short with a first-round loss as the No. 2 seed. The New Orleans Pelicans failed to take a leap as Zion Williamson dealt with a hamstring injury. After adding Kyrie Irving alongside Luka Doncic, the Dallas Mavericks failed to even earn a play-in spot. Of course, the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs finished with the worst records in the West at 22-60.

This division has hope entering the 2023-24 season, though. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Grizzlies (-230), Pelicans (-132), and Mavericks (-215) are expected to earn postseason berths when looking at tjheir NBA playoff odds. Plus, the Rockets and Spurs could improve with projected win totals of 31.5 and 28.5, per the NBA win total odds.

Which Southwest squads could be the top bets to flounder or flourish?

Houston Rockets Under 31.5 Wins (-115)

After going 59-177 over the previous three seasons, Houston finally declared it had a problem and fired coach Stephen Silas. The Rockets' new hire turned some heads as they named Ime Udoka as the next head coach. Udoka, the former Boston Celtics head man, was fired for a scandal during the 2022-23 season. Of course, the move to hire Udoka raised some eyebrows. Houston is desperate to win, but will the decision pay off?

The Rockets enjoyed a promising offseason led by the acquisitions of Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and first-round rookies Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.

However, Houston's offseason was thrown off the rails following the devastating news surrounding Kevin Porter Jr.. The 6-foot-4 guard was arrested in New York for an alleged domestic assault. The franchise announced on Monday that Porter is no longer with the team.

Porter finished second on the team with a 25.0% usage rate last season while averaging a career-high 19.2 points per game (PPG). This is a big role for the Rockets to replace.

Fortunately, Houston added several capable scorers in the offseason. However, inefficient scoring has been a major problem for the Rockets. Their offseason additions do not solve the problem. If anything, they could make the issue even worse. I don't expect Houston to lift off anytime soon; I like the under for their win total.

Rockets Add Fuel to the Fire

Signing VanVleet was the crowning achievement of the offseason. The one-time All-Star has averaged at least 19.0 PPG in three consecutive seasons. He joins a talented backcourt led by Jalen Green and Thompson, who was hailed as an elite athlete with exceptional versatility during the draft process.

VanVleet was a go-to scorer for the Toronto Raptors, but he lacked quality shooting splits. The former Wichita State Shockers guard had a 48.6% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) -- the second-worst mark of his seven-year career -- and had a true shooting percentage (TS%) of 54.0% (362nd).

The Rockets ranked 30th in eFG% last season. Adding VanVleet does not solve the problem; it only adds to the concern. The same can be said regarding the addition of Brooks. In the 2022-23 season, Brooks had a 46.8 eFG% and 49.4 TS% (463rd).

The efficiency of returning pieces, like Green and Jabari Smith, are also concerns. Green finished 365th in the NBA with a 53.8 TS% and Smith recorded a 51.3 TS%, finishing 427th in the category.

This team is full of inefficient guards and wings, which will only fuel more losses. Houston only added even more inefficient scorers. Which players could help improve the unit's efficiency? Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Cam Whitmore could be the keys to unlocking this offense.

Sengun was easily the most efficient player on the roster last season with a team-best 113.4 offensive rating while boasting a 55.3% field goal percentage (FG%). He was also one of three players on the roster with a positive offensive RAPTOR alongside Green and Kevin Porter Jr.

Thompson could lack a reliable jumpshot, but his athleticism and versatility could help spark this offense. After sliding in the 2023 NBA Draft, Whitmore impressed in the NBA Summer League, earning the 2023 Summer League MVP award thanks to his 20.4 PPG average.

Smith could also be poised for a second-year breakout after averaging 35.5 PPG in two Summer League games.

However, we will likely see another inefficient offense. A lot would have to go right to turn this streaky offense around, including breakout performances from young players. We can't ignore the defense either; it finished 29th in defensive rating last season. Brooks and Thompson could be the only real improvements to the unit. Brooks ranked 42nd in defensive RAPTOR in the 2022-23 season, and Thompson has enticing defensive upside thanks to his length and fluid athleticism.

It's unlikely that Ime Udoka will fix the Rockets overnight. The defense is a clear weakness, meaning Houston must lean on its group of promising scorers. However, the efficiency has not been there. More inefficient offense could lead to another disappointing season in H-Town.

Dallas Mavericks Over 44.5 Wins (-128)

As previously mentioned, Dallas had one of the most disappointing ends to the 2022-23 season. The Mavericks attempted to go all in by adding Kyrie Irving. However, the move did not pay off as Dallas went 10-18 after acquiring Kyrie. Following the aggressive trade, the Mavs failed to finish within the top 10 of the Western Conference with a 38-44 record.

However, Dallas doubled down on its commitment to winning in the offseason. They re-signed Irving to a three-year, $126 million contract. Luka Doncic will have a star running mate for several seasons. Of course, that's assuming that Kyrie stays happy. Who knows how long that will last? For now, Irving is a key piece after averaging 27.1 PPG last season.

The Mavericks didn't stop there, though. They also looked to upgrade the defense by signing the former Celtics forward Grant Williams, and Dallas drafted Dereck Lively and Olivier-Maxence Prosper in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft. The potential defensive upgrade is another bullet point for taking the over for the Mavs' win total.

Pairing Kyrie and Luka has its obvious benefits, particularly on the offensive end, but Dallas lacked the ideal surrounding pieces last season. After a solid offseason, the over for the Mavericks' win total looks quite intriguing. Here's how Dallas' new pieces can engineer a turnaround in the 2023-24 season.

Ambitious With Additions

We know what we are getting in Irving and Doncic: offense, offense, and more offense. These are two of the Association's most talented scorers. In 20 games with the Mavs, Kyrie led the team with a 122.6 offensive rating. Luka averaged a career-high 32.4 PPG paired with 8.0 assists per game (APG) and 8.6 rebounds per game (RPG). FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR gives us perhaps the most insight on Irving and Doncic's dominance on the offensive end; both finished within the top nine of offensive RAPTOR.

Dallas has an electric tandem that's capable of taking on most of the scoring load. However, Kyrie and Luka are not exceptional defenders as most of us know. Irving (116.9) and Doncic (116.6) had defensive ratings that were higher than the league average of 114.8 last season.

To make matters worse, the Mavericks lacked rim protection, ranking 28th in blocks per game and 19th in allowed points in the paint per game. Dallas also ranked 25th in defensive rating.

Fortunately, the Mavs did not overlook the issue in the offseason and made an effort to improve the unit. Grant Williams has a 110.9 career defensive rating, which is impressive when you consider Williams' defensive tasks. He is a valuable defender thanks to his ability to guard big wings.

Think about the term "big wings." This would include players like Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Jayson Tatum. Williams has been consistently tasked with guarding some of the league's most dominant players. He's managed to hold his own with an above-average defensive rating. Adding a defender of Williams' caliber is crucial for Dallas' defense.

There are a ton of unknowns when it comes to rookies. How many minutes will they play? Will they produce or struggle with consistency? These are concerns for Dereck Lively and Olivier-Maxence Prosper on the offensive end. However, their defending should bring a big boost to the Mavs' defense.

Both players have excellent length; Lively is 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-7 wingspan, and Prosper is 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan. They were also hailed as top defensive talents in the 2023 class. Lively has elite shot-blocking upside while Prosper has exceptional versatility thanks to his athleticism and length.

Dallas revealed they will start Lively and Prosper in the preseason. Coach Jason Kidd credited the rookie duo for a strong offseason:

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The Mavericks clearly have prominent roles planned for both rookies, which should greatly benefit the defense.

Williams, Lively, and Prosper should help turn around Dallas' lacking D. No, it will not become one of the Association's best units. However, if it is even mediocre, the Mavs are in business thanks to their elite scoring duo of Irving and Doncic. With the defense taking a step in the right direction, back the over for Dallas' win total.

Do you think you know which NBA teams will succeed or falter this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA win total odds market to bet any team's win total with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.