NBA MVP Odds Update: Luka Doncic Vaults to the Top

Ahead of the 2023-24 season, Nikola Jokic was the favorite to win the NBA MVP award, followed by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic.

After no centers won the award from 2004 to 2020, the MVP has suddenly been dominated by big men. Jokic won the hardware in the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, and Joel Embiid snagged his first MVP trophy in the 2022-23 campaign.

The MVP odds are constantly shifting during the topsy-turvy NBA season. Let's break down the latest NBA MVP odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Here are the top-10 favorites:

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks (+400)

Luka Doncic has been the big riser over the first week of the season. After finishing third in usage rate last season (36.8%), Doncic currently ranks second in the league with a 36.4% usage rate. Kyrie Irving has had minimal impact on Luka's MVP bid thus far, which is exactly what I was expecting prior to the season.

Through three games, Doncic has slightly improved his offensive rating from last season, going from 119.5 to 119.8. Most importantly, his defensive rating has improved from 116.6 to 112.6, although we're obviously dealing with a small sample. This can be partially credited to the additions of Grant Williams (110.3) and Dereck Lively (112.0), who have helped improve the team's defensive rating to 18th -- compared to 25th in the 2022-23 season.

Of course, Luka's massive scoring totals thus far have been the biggest help to his MVP campaign. He is averaging 39.0 points per game (PPG) -- the top mark in the NBA as of November 1. Doncic has done so while shooting a blistering 48.6% on three-pointers and 55.6% from the floor. Additionally, he is almost averaging a triple-double with 11.7 rebounds per game (RPG) and 9.7 assists per game (APG).

Luka has started the 2023-24 at a historic pace. It's unlikely that he will continue at this rate, but the Dallas Mavericks' early season success combined with Doncic's high usage rate gives him a very real chance to win the MVP this year.

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (+400)

Nikola Jokic will likely stay in the thick of the MVP conversation from start to finish. He has played in at least 69 games in every season of his eight-year career. Some -- including myself -- would argue that Jokic should have won his third consecutive MVP award last season after leading the league in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) by a wide margin (25.9; second-best was 14.2).

Regardless, Jokic still has a great chance of winning his third MVP this season. The Denver Nuggets have rolled to a 4-0 start with the second-best average scoring margin in the Association (+14.3). Jokic has continued to stuff the stat sheet with averages of 26.5 PPG, 12.3 RPG, and 8.5 RPG.

His defensive rating has also drastically improved (112.5 to 100.7) early on. If Jokic's defensive production stays at this rate, good luck catching him in the MVP race. Defense has always been Jokic's clear weakness; he'd have everything covered with a solid defensive rating.

Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (+700)

The Boston Celtics, who FanDuel's NBA Finals odds have as the favorite to win the championship (+370), are off to a dominant 3-0 start while touting the fifth-best average scoring margin (+10.3).

As usual, Jayson Tatum has been the alpha dog, averaging 29.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 4.0 APG. This is a slight drop compared to last season's averages of 30.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 4.6 APG. Tatum is clearly in the MVP conversation, boasting the third-shortest odds, but he may need to do more to climb the rankings.

Jaylen Brown is still a concern for Tatum's bid. Brown has a 28.6% usage rate, compared to Tatum's 30.7% mark. This is not far from last season's usage breakdown between the two (33.1% and 31.5%).

The running theme among this season's top MVP contenders is their defensive improvement. Tatum is yet another addition to the list, with his 104.0 defensive rating (112.6 in the 2022-23 season). More than likely, these defensive ratings will rise since we are only a few games into the season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+900)

Even with the addition of Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo still has MVP-level usage on the Milwaukee Bucks. In fact, he has the third-highest usage rate in the NBA at 33.9%. This is quite a bit lower than last season's 39.0% usage rate, though.

After recording a career-high 20.3 field goals attempted per game (FGA) in the 2022-23 season, Giannis is averaging 18.7 FGA thus far. Lillard's 15.3 FGA has certainly played a role in the drop in shot attempts.

Antetokounmpo's rebounds and assists have also dipped to 10.0 RPG and 2.7 APG -- compared to last season's 11.8 RPG and 5.7 APG. The same level of efficiency has not been there, either, with a 56.3 effective field goal percentage (eFG%), which would be his lowest mark since the 2017-18 season.

Not all has been bad, though. Giannis' defensive efforts have improved with 1.7 blocks per game (BPG), which is on pace for a career-best mark. And given how small the samples are this year, Antetokounmpo's offensive numbers will likely bounce back over time.

The Greek Freak -- a two-time MVP winner -- will remain a big-time player in the award race. However, he must improve his stat totals to approach the top.

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (+900)

Rounding out the top-five favorites is the reigning MVP winner, Joel Embiid. His numbers still look the part at 31.0 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 7.0 APG, and 3.0 BPG. Embiid's assist and block totals would be career-high clips.

Most importantly, the six-time All-Star leads the NBA with a 37.6% usage rate (higher than last season's 37.0%). This usage rate should remain the same -- or even increase -- after the Philadelphia 76ers traded James Harden.

Tyrese Maxey has the second-highest usage rate on the Sixers (27.3%), which is still far behind Embiid's mark. Philly will likely continue to lean on the 2022-23 MVP winner in nearly every facet of the game.

Others

• Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (+1000)
• Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns (+1800)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (+1800)
• Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks (+2300)
• Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns (+2300)
• Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers (+3100)
• Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers (+3500)
• Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (+4000)
• De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings (+4500)
• LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers (+5000)

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.