NBA MVP Odds: Can Anyone Catch Nikola Jokic?

With Joel Embiid's eliminated from contention due to his knee injury, Nikola Jokic now has a clear lead in the race for MVP.

Since our last odds check-in, Jokic’s odds have improved slightly from -140 to -155, but there are still several other contenders challenging him for the award.

Let's dive into the NBA MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and take a look at Jokic and the other leading MVP candidates.

Here are the 10 available odds for the MVP award, followed by a breakdown of the top 4 contenders.

NBA MVP Odds

Nikola Jokic (-155)

Nikola Jokic remains the clear favorite to take home his third MVP award with implied odds of 60.8% to win. Over the past 10 days, his odds have improved slightly with three consecutive triple doubles punctuated by his 32-point, 16-rebound, 16-assist, 4-steal performance in a win over the Golden State Warriors on Sunday night.

Jokic is now averaging 26.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game this season despite a usage rate of 29.0% that ranks 24th. Jokic is shooting 58.3% from the field, tied with his 2021-22 season for the second-best mark of his career. His 12.3 rebounds per game also ranks second-best, up slightly from last season (11.8), as do his 9.3 assists per game. His 18 triple doubles are second to only Domantas Sabonis (20), and well ahead of Luka Doncic in third (10). Jokic hasn’t slowed down at all and continues to produce at a historic level night in and night out.

From a team perspective, Jokic’s resume is slightly lacking this season. In an extremely competitive West, the Denver Nuggets sit at 39-19, which is 1.5 games behind both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder. With Anthony Edwards (+25000) a longshot to win, the Timberwolves do not have a leading MVP candidate -- but the Thunder certainly do. With Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) set to battle it out, how OKC and Denver finish in the West could have an impact on who takes home MVP. If Denver can close the season strong and earn the No.1 seed, it’s difficult to see anyone getting in the way of Jokic’s third MVP in four seasons.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+220)

Since our last update, SGA’s odds have decreased slightly, from +210 to +220, but he retained his position as the most likely challenger to Jokic. After finishing fifth in last year’s MVP voting, SGA is putting together a season that could see him win the award for the first time.

SGA’s case for MVP is an easy one to make; he is the leader of a young, exciting Thunder team that is putting together one of the best seasons in the NBA. Sitting at 40-17, OKC is tied for first in the West with Minnesota, but their underlying metrics indicate that they are a slightly better team. Per Dunks & Threes, they rank third in adjusted offensive rating (aORTG) (119.5) and fourth in adjusted defensive rating (aDRTG) (112.3) for an adjusted net (aNET) rating of +7.3, which ranks second behind only the Boston Celtics and 0.6 points ahead of the Timberwolves in third.

Outside of the Celtics, the Thunder are the only team that ranks inside the top five on both sides of the ball. They are an elite team, a complete team, and SGA is at the center of their success with a 31.8% usage rate. He is averaging the third most points per game (31.2) in the league and posting career highs in assists (6.6) and steals (2.1) per game while recording his most rebounds per game (5.5) since his sophomore season in 2019-20.

Jokic remains the favorite, but make no mistake about it, from both an individual and team perspective, SGA is in the middle of a season worthy of taking home MVP. If the Thunder win the West, there could be a strong narrative for SGA to win the award. His implied odds of doing so currently sit at 31.3%.

Luka Doncic (+700)

Doncic is the big winner in today’s update with his odds improving from +1300 to +700. The move sees him swap places with Giannis Antetokounmpo and climb to third on the odds table.

Doncic’s rise up the odds table coincided with a seven-game winning streak for Dallas, which ended with their 22-point loss to the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. Team-level success is a crucial component to Doncic finally winning his first MVP award. He has finished fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth the last four seasons; during that time, Dallas never finished higher than fourth in the West.

Luka’s individual brilliance is nothing new, and he has been exceptional since entering the league. He has taken a slight step forward this season, averaging career highs in both points per game (34.3) and assists per game (9.5) with a 35.4% usage rate that ranks second among players with at least 11 minutes played this season. His +9.9 plus-minus ranks fourth only slightly behind SGA’s (+10.1), and he is third in the NBA in triple-doubles (10).

The hole in Doncic’s MVP resume remains the same -- Dallas' record. Even after their winning streak, the Mavericks sit at 33-24, which is eighth in the West and seven games behind Minnesota and OKC. Thier underlying metrics don’t paint a brighter picture; they rank sixth in aORTG (118.3) but 22nd in aDRTG (117.3) and 14th in aNET (+1.0).

The Mavericks are just half a game out of fifth in the West, so things can change quickly, but as it stands, they are a clear tier below Denver and at least two tiers below OKC.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1500)

Antetokounmpo’s odds have declined from +700 to +1500 since our last update. Like Doncic, Antetokounmpo’s resume for MVP this season is lacking from a team perspective. On an individual level, Antetokounmpo is still performing at the same incredible level that has seen him finish no worse than fourth in MVP voting since the 2018-19 season.

He is averaging 30.8 points per game (fourth in the league), 11.3 rebounds per game, and 6.4 assists per game. His 30.8 PPG is the second-highest average of his career -- and higher than any of his MVP-winning seasons. His 6.4 APG and 61.6% field-goal percentage are also the highest marks of his career. His seven triple-doubles rank fourth in the league, and his 32.0% usage rate ranks third among players with at least 11 minutes played. On a per-game basis, Antetokounmpo’s season, on offense, is better than either of his MVP-winning campaigns.

On defense, the stats tell a different story. A huge part of Antetokounmpo’s back-to-back MVP seasons from 2018-2020 was his defense. He led the NBA in defensive win shares in both seasons, with marks of 0.164 and 0.195. This season, he ranks 50th (0.110). Milwaukee’s team-level struggles can also be attributed to their defense. They rank fifth in aORTG (118.8) but 18th in aDRTG (116.1). In 2019, they ranked second in aDRTG (105.9), and in 2020, they led the league (103.1).

Despite that, the Bucks still sit at 37-21 (third in the East) but 7.5 games behind the Celtics, who they were expected to challenge for the top seed. Antetokounmpo is still performing at an elite level, but Milwaukee’s defense will need to improve for him to capture his third MVP.

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