NBA Finals: Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props for Mavericks vs. Celtics

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

Following the Dallas Mavericks' 124-103 Game 5 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves to seal the Western Conference Finals, the 2024 NBA Finals matchup is officially set with the Mavericks taking on the Boston Celtics.

Dallas has been on a tear for months as they ended the regular season with a 16-4 record and now find themselves in the Finals after taking out the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Timberwolves. Boston has been among the league's top teams since the start of the season, and they are numberFire's top team with a 80.8 nERD rating.

The NBA Finals tips off on Thursday, June 6th. Let's break down the series before it begins by looking at stats for each squad and FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Finals odds.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Finals Odds

Mavericks vs. Celtics Betting Odds: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

Mavericks vs. Celtics Prediction

  • numberFire Prediction:
    • Mavericks to Win the NBA Finals: 8.27%
    • Celtics to Win the NBA Finals: 91.73%
  • ESPN Prediction:
    • Mavericks to Win the NBA Finals: 35.1%
    • Celtics to Win the NBA Finals: 64.9%
  • Opta Analyst Prediction:
    • Mavericks to Win the NBA Finals: 18.4%
    • Celtics to Win the NBA Finals: 81.6%
  • Basketball Reference Prediction:
    • Mavericks to Win the NBA Finals: 9.1%
    • Celtics to Win the NBA Finals: 90.9%

NBA Finals Prop Bets

NBA Finals MVP odds:

  • Jayson Tatum: -120
  • Luka Doncic: +210
  • Jaylen Brown: +600
  • Kyrie Irving: +2000

Most Total Points:

  • Luka Doncic: -170
  • Jayson Tatum: +250
  • Kyrie Irving: +1200
  • Jaylen Brown: +1200

Most Total Rebounds:

  • Jayson Tatum: -110
  • Luka Doncic: +155
  • Dereck Lively: +1100
  • Kristaps Porzingis: +1900
  • Daniel Gafford: +2000

Most Total Assists:

  • Luka Doncic: -650
  • Jayson Tatum: +950
  • Kyrie Irving: +1600

Most Total Made Threes:

  • Luka Doncic: +110
  • Derrick White: +340
  • Kyrie Irving: +550
  • Jayson Tatum: +850
  • Kristaps Porzingis: +1800

NBA Finals Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

  • Mavericks:
    • nERD: 57.1 (12th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
    • Pace: 100.4 (8th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34-0
    • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
      • Rim: 30.1% (30th) - 67.3% (3rd)
      • Mid: 25.8% (14th) - 44.7% (9th)
      • 3PT: 44.1% (2nd) - 36.9% (13th)
  • Celtics:
    • nERD: 80.8 (1st)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 122.0 (1st)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (2nd)
    • Pace: 97.7 (19th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 41-36-5
    • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
      • Rim: 31.1% (26th) - 67.2% (4th)
      • Mid: 21.8% (1st) - 43.7% (15th)
      • 3PT: 47.1% (1st) - 38.8% (2nd)

Mavericks vs. Celtics Analysis

This edition of the NBA Finals is packed with storylines, mainly when you look at Kyrie Irving and Kristaps Porzingis. Kyrie, of course, was with Boston in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. This marriage was nowhere close to working out, with drama surrounding Irving and the franchise. While the unity between Dallas and Porzingis lacked the drama, this pairing did not work either when Kristaps was playing for the Mavericks from 2019-20 to 2021-22. It's safe to say that revenge is likely on the mind of both players.

These franchises are also in vastly different spaces when it comes to the history of the NBA. The Celtics are looking to separate themselves from the Los Angeles Lakers with the most all-time NBA championships (seeking their 18th). Meanwhile, Dallas has only one championship since the franchise was established in 1980. The sole title came in 2011 when the Mavs were major underdogs against LeBron James and the Miami Heat.

Dallas is in an underdog role once again as they look to extend their all-time Finals record to 2-1. Are the Mavericks capable of pulling off another upset to win it all?

This is gearing up to be a pretty promising matchup. Dallas has been one of the league's best teams since March, and the Celtics have done their thing since the start of the season. The Mavs just pulled off an upset against the Timberwolves last round as they were +142 to win the Western Conference Finals before that series began. The situation looks pretty similar -- Dallas is listed at +184 odds to win the NBA Finals.

The biggest factor in this series could be the Mavericks' defense. During the regular season, they had the 13th-worst defensive rating at 115.3. This has dropped to 111.1 during the postseason, which is the seventh-lowest mark among the 16 playoff squads. The Mavs' D is not elite like the Celtics' defense -- Boston has the third-lowest defensive rating in the playoffs at 108.7 -- but this is still a major improvement on Dallas' end.

Defending the rim is where Dallas has been leaps and bounds better from the regular season. They gave up 49.6 points in the paint per game in the regular season (14th-most) compared to 42.7 in the playoffs (4th-fewest). Dereck Lively's outstanding defense (team-best 107.1 rating) has been a major key. The Mavericks have a potential advantage in the painted area as Boston averaged the third-fewest points in the paint during the regular season.

Dallas' biggest challenge will likely be slowing the Celtics' three-point attack; Boston is logging the most three-point attempts and makes per game in the playoffs. Fortunately for Dallas, the Mavs have also improved in this category, going from 35.2 three-point attempts allowed per game in the regular season (14th-fewest) to 32.9 in the postseason (6th-fewest).

Personally, I'm not concerned about the Mavericks' ability to score. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are on a roll, each scoring at least 27.0 points per game (PPG) in the previous series. Dallas' worries will likely lay on the defensive end as Boston had the highest offensive rating in the regular season and carries the second-highest offensive rating in the playoffs.

Slowing Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is always a worry. Derrick Jones Jr. (110.2 defensive rating in playoffs) has been an exceptional wing defender, but the Mavericks will need two exceptional wing defenders in this series. Can anyone step to the plate? Plus, Boston's offense could get even more dangerous with Porzingis nearing a return from injury.

Boston is a clear favorite to win the series (-220), but the Mavericks may have a better chance than most are giving them.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.