NBA

NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Picks and Prediction (Mavericks-Celtics)

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

The Dallas Mavericks staved off elimination with a dominant, 38-point win in Game 4. But the Boston Celtics still hold a 3-1 lead in the series and boast -3500 odds to win the NBA Finals.

Can the Mavericks force Game 6, or will the Celtics close it out at home?

Let's dive into the odds and break down the matchup before talking through the best bet for Mavericks-Celtics Game 5.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Finals Betting

Mavericks-Celtics Betting Odds

Date and Time: Monday, June 17th at 8:35 p.m. ET

Spread: Celtics -6.5 (-112)

Total: 209.5 (-112/-108)

Moneyline:

Mavericks vs. Celtics Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

  • Dallas Mavericks:
    • nERD: 57.1 (12th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
    • Pace: 100.4 (8th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34-0
  • Boston Celtics:
    • nERD: 80.8 (1st)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 122.0 (1st)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (2nd)
    • Pace: 97.7 (19th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 41-36-5

Mavericks vs. Celtics Best Bet

Mavericks +6.5 (-108)

The final score of Game 4 was jarring, but the result wasn't exactly unexpected.

We saw the Celtics look less dominant sans Kristaps Porzingis in Game 3. Despite winning by seven, the Mavs only trailed by three when Luka Doncic fouled out at the four-minute mark. Doncic finished +9 in that game, but Dallas was -16 in Tim Hardaway Jr.'s 19 minutes.

Well, in Game 4, Luka avoided foul trouble en route to 29 points and a +30 mark across 33 minutes. Hardaway Jr. didn't play until the game was well out of reach in the fourth quarter.

Granted, the Mavs shot 15-of-37 from three (40.5%). That's a winning recipe. But their defense and work on the glass was what really stood out.

The Mavericks held the Celtics to just 35 first half points on 29.7% shooting. They out-rebounded Boston 29 to 13 in the first quarter, finishing +21 on the glass. They've now out-rebounded the Celtics by 28 in two games without Porzingis.

Porzingis is expected to dress tonight, but the expectation is that he'll play a similar role to Game 4 when he failed to log a single minute.

His absence has led to a rejuvenated effort from Dereck Lively. After he recorded just 4 points and 12 rebounds total in the first two games, the rookie big man has racked up consecutive double-doubles sans Porzingis. Lively has +270 odds to record a double-double in Game 5.

Kyrie Irving has also picked it up, notching 35 and 21 points the last two games. He shot 50% over those two outings after Boston held him to 35.1% in Games 1 and 2.

On Boston's side, Jayson Tatum (36.5% FG%; 3.5 turnovers per game) continues to struggle, while Jrue Holiday has cooled off after a red-hot start to the series.

With Porzingis sidelined, Dallas should have the interior advantage yet again. We saw in Game 3 that doesn't guarantee they'll keep things within six points, but it's hard to ignore how dominant they looked in Game 4.

Look for the Mavericks to cover +6.5 here, and there's a case for their moneyline at +215 odds considering how well they've played over the last five quarters.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.