NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 4/11/24: Will Pelicans Complete Series Sweep Over Kings?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

Knicks Team Total Over 108.5 (-106)

The Boston Celtics are likely resting key players in their final three regular-season games with the 1 seed in the Eastern Conference clinched. This checks out when looking at the injury report. Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jayson Tatum are all questionable against the New York Knicks.

New York is in a completely different boat as they are half a game in front of the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 3 seed. Outside of Julius Randle's season-ending shoulder injury, the Knicks are expected to be fully healthy tonight. New York is favored by three points on the road, mostly due to the lengthy injury report for Boston.

Instead of betting on the spread, I'm looking at the over for the Knicks' total. The over is 7-3 in the Celtics' last 10 games, and it is 8-2 during New York's previous 10. While Boston has the second-best defensive rating, the defense will certainly be lesser if players like Holiday (112.7 defensive rating), Tatum (111.6 defensive rating), and Horford (111.2 defensive rating) are out. This makes New York's individual total very enticing.

The Knicks have reached 120 points in three of their last four games and have cashed in 43.4% of their three-point shots during the four-game span. The Celtics' perimeter defense is the most vulnerable part of their defense, giving up the eighth-most three-point attempts per game (36.7). This mark has increased over the last three games with opponents averaging 41.7 shots per contest.

One of Boston's best defenders -- Derrick White -- will likely be available, but the Celtics could still lack quality defenders in the backcourt tonight. Payton Pritchard, Jaden Springer, and JD Davison are all weaker defenders than Boston's normal rotation.

This presents a great opportunity for New York's backcourt to thrive, including Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo. Brunson has logged a whopping 44.0 points per game (PPG) over the last two games, and his points prop is set at 30.5.

I expect the Knicks' hot offense to take advantage of a resting Celtics squad. New York going over 108.5 points is the best bet for this Eastern Conference clash.

Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz

Under 227.5 (-110)

The Houston Rockets and the Utah Jazz's seasons are wrapping up as both teams have been eliminated from postseason contention. As usual, teams are not against resting their key players when there's essentially nothing left to play for in the final week of the season.

This looks to be the case for Utah, who will be without Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, and John Collins. These are the Jazz's top four scorers who combine for over 74.0 PPG. Houston holds the 10th-best mark in defensive rating.

Utah's offense is likely headed for a low-scoring outing. The unit has averaged only 102.3 PPG over the last three games while shooting just 41.5% from the field. The Jazz have been without Markkanen, Clarkson, and Collins in the lineup for a while, but this will be only the second game with Sexton also being absent.

The unit is missing a ton of production from three-point land as Markkanen and Sexton are among the top three on the team in shooting percentage. This offense already has the 13th-worst effective field goal percentage (eFG%) on the season, and it's only getting worse.

Houston's offense is not a slam dunk to light up the scoreboard, either. They have shot under 45.0% from the field in five of their last seven games. The Rockets have also totaled 111.7 PPG during the seven-game span compared to their season average of only 114.2 PPG.

The two teams met on March 29th, and Houston won the contest 101-100 with the under easily hitting (231 total). I'm expecting a similar result with the under hitting once again.

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings

Pelicans Moneyline (-106)

The Western Conference features a key battle between potential Play-In Tournament teams. The New Orleans Pelicans and the Sacramento Kings are among the three teams jostling for the 6 seed -- the final spot for clinching a playoff berth. The Pelicans currently hold the 6 seed, but the Kings can cut it down to a one-game lead with a win.

The stakes are clearly there for this matchup. There's a good chance that Sacramento's Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk will be out for the season. New Orleans' Brandon Ingram continues to battle a nagging knee injury and will miss his 11th consecutive game tonight.

Before taking a side, let's look at how each offense has produced without these key players. For the Kings, their two-point percentage drops from 56.0% (9th-best) to 50.7%, but the three-point percentage jumps from 36.5% (16th-best) to 38.3%. Sacramento has also logged a whopping 52.3 three-point attempts per game over the last three (season average is 39.4).

This looks to be a big advantage for tonight, for the Pelicans surrender the second-most three-point attempts and seventh-most three-point makes per contest.

New Orleans' shooting splits look about the same without Ingram in the lineup. They shoot 54.9% on two-point looks (12th-best) and 37.8% on threes (7th-best); without Ingram, the Pels are making 55.2% of twos and 38.2% of threes.

This could allow us to take a lot of value from head-to-head matchups because New Orleans' stats without Ingram are still in line with their season-long splits. The Pelicans are 4-0 outright and against the spread (ATS) versus the Kings this season.

New Orleans logged 126.5 PPG while winning the frontcourt matchup in the four contests. I'm comfortable taking the Pelicans to win on the road due to their utter dominance around the rim against Sacramento.

For example, the Pels have won the paint battle by an average margin of 19.0 points while winning the rebounding battle by about 14.8 boards per game in head-to-head clashes this season. But wait, it doesn't stop there. New Orleans has also drained 41.9% of their three-point looks against the Kings. The Pelicans' advantages simply outweigh Sacramento's strength from three.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.