NBA Betting Picks for Friday 4/5/24: The Celtics are Seeing Green Against the Kings

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers

Over 235 (-110)

Two top-four offenses will be on display in the Oklahoma City Thunder-Indiana Pacers matchup. The Thunder have a major piece out, though, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will miss his third consecutive game due to a quad injury.

Of course, SGA has been one of the most valuable players in the Association, leading the Thunder with 30.3 points per game (PPG) and a 32.9% usage rate. The under is also 7-3 over the Pacers' last 10 games. The under could look like the best bet on the surface. After a deeper dive, the over looks like the side to back, though.

Even without Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup, the Thunder still feature a dangerous offense. In over 500 possessions with SGA off of the floor, Oklahoma City shoots 60.1% on two-pointers and 36.6% on threes. The three-point percentage is a drop from their season-long mark of 38.9% (second-best), but the two-point percentage is elite. The Thunder already excel on two-pointers, converting 56.6% of their looks (fifth-best). Increasing this mark by nearly four percentage points is not too shabby.

The Pacers have the seventh-worst defensive rating and allow the most points in the paint per game. The opportunity is still there for OKC to score.

On the other side of the court, Indiana averages the 12th-most made threes per contest. The Thunder have the NBA's fifth-best defensive rating, but defending the three has not been a strength with OKC surrendering the sixth-most shots per game.

Most importantly, both teams play fast, providing more support for the over. Each squad is among the top seven for the quickest paces and most possessions in basketball. Going over 235 points feels very much within reach.

Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics

Celtics -9 (-108)
Celtics Team Total Over 117.5 (-110)

Per usual, the Boston Celtics are rolling with an 8-2 record over the last 10 games. Boston will be without Jaylen Brown and Derrick White tonight, but they will face a weakened squad in the Sacramento Kings.

Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter recently sustained notable injuries for the Kings. With both players out of the lineup over the last four games, Sacramento has failed to reach 110 points in three contests.

The Kings' three-point percentage jumps from 36.7% (14th-best) to 37.5% with Monk and Huerter off of the court. Boston gives up the eighth-most three-point shots per game, but they also hold the second-best mark in opponent three-point percentage (34.9%). The perimeter defense has upped the ante, holding opponents to 32.9% from beyond the arc over the last four games.

The Celtics' defense could thrive in this one, and the offense has a good matchup against the league's 13th-worst defensive rating. Boston continues to let it fly from three, totaling 41.5 shots while shooting 39.2% over their last four contests. Both marks are pretty much on par with the Celtics' season-long marks of 42.5 attempts per game (first) and a 39.0% shooting percentage (first).

Sacramento gives up the 11th-most three-point makes each contest and has the 2nd-worst mark in opponent three-point percentage. There could be a huge difference in these three-point attacks in favor of Boston.

The Celtics are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) while logging 128.3 PPG over their previous seven home games. I expect both trends to continue for Boston. Give me the Celtics to cover and to go over 117.5 points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.