NBA Betting Picks for Friday 2/2/24: Pacers Underdog Pick Draws Intrigue

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers

Pacers Moneyline (+122)

Following two close losses on the road, the Indiana Pacers are back home in the Gainbridge Fieldhouse to play host to the Sacramento Kings. The Pacers are 16-9 at home compared to 11-14 on the road, and the Kings will be playing in their fifth straight away game. An upset could be brewing in Indiana.

Friday's contest has a large total of 248.5, which lines up when you see both teams are among the NBA's top 11 quickest paces. If the Pacers are to come out with the win, it will likely be on their offense's back. Indiana boasts the best offensive rating in the league, and Sacramento has the 14th-worst defensive rating.

The Pacers total the most points in the paint per game while touting the second-best two-point percentage, which should come in handy with the Kings ranking in the middle of the road of interior defense (15th in points in the paint allowed). This could be a game for Pascal Siakam to feast as he is shooting 57.8% over his previous five games and 61.4% of his field goals come within 10 feet of the basket.

Indiana will be hoping to see Tyrese Haliburton's role increase as he is averaging only 22 minutes per game since returning from a hamstring injury over his previous two contests. He's still generated positive play even in limited minutes; for example, he was +5 in yesterday's game.

When looking at numberFire's game projections, the model is suggesting the Pacers to cover. But wait, it gets even more interesting. numberFire is giving Indiana a 60.1% chance of winning. Backing the Pacers moneyline is my favorite pick of the day.

Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves

Over 211.5 (-112)

The lowest total for Friday is the Orlando Magic against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 211.5. No other game has a total of under 220. Both defenses guard at a high level with the Magic holding the fifth-best rating and the Timberwolves boasting the top rating in the league. Each squad also opts for a slow-paced game as Orlando has the 10th-slowest pace and Minnesota has the 5th-slowest.

However, I still like the over for several reasons. First off, the over has hit in back-to-back games when the Magic have a game total of under 220. In games with a game total that's 217 or lower, the Wolves have gone over in five straight. It's not like these teams cannot score. In fact, Orlando's Paolo Banchero, who averages 23.0 points per game (PPG), and Minnesota's Anthony Edwards (25.5 PPG) and Karl-Anthony Towns (22.7 PPG), were announced as All-Star reserves on Thursday. Will the star players carry their success into Friday's game?

Edwards and Towns could find success by attacking the painted area. Orlando has mediocre rankings in this category, allowing the 13th-fewest points in the paint per game while carrying the 14th-worst mark in opponent two-point percentage (out of 30 teams). Edwards takes 42.7% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket while Towns takes 57.5% from the distance. Plus, both players shoot better than 57.5% from within 10 feet.

The T-Wolves have a more well-rounded defense, presenting the Magic's offense with a difficult challenge. Orlando has increased their three-point volume in recent games, which could help open up Minnesota's air-tight paint defense. The Magic are averaging 12.3 three-point makes per game over the last three -- compared to their season average of 10.8 (last). Banchero has shined over his past three games with 29.0 PPG while making 8 of 17 three-point attempts (47.1%).

With Orlando averaging 116.7 PPG and Minnesota logging 113.3 PPG over their last three games, I like the over due to the low total.

Miami Heat at Washington Wizards

Wizards +8.5 (-110)

The Miami Heat finally snapped their seven-game losing streak with a 115-106 win over the Kings on Wednesday. They have a great chance of staying in the win column on the road against the Washington Wizards as the Heat are -355 on the moneyline. However, the 8.5-point spread feels a little high. Miami is 1-7 against the spread (ATS) over their previous eight contests and Washington is 2-1 ATS in the last three.

With the Heat failing to cover five straight games on the road, I'm in agreement with numberFire's suggestion of taking the Wizards to cover. Finding Washington's strengths can be like searching for gold in a mud pit. This is one of the league's worst teams (fifth-worst in numberFire's power rankings), and they are among the bottom six teams in both offensive and defensive rating. The Wizards' glimmering hope could lay on the offensive end.

Washington totals the 16th-most PPG at 115.0 while logging the 2nd-most points in the paint each contest. Opponents shoot 56.4% on two-pointers against Miami (eighth-worst for defenses). This is gearing up to be a big game for the Wizards' leaders in the paint, which includes Kyle Kuzma (22.0 PPG), Deni Avdija (12.4 PPG), and Daniel Gafford (10.7 PPG).

Kuzma takes 48.9% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket, Avdija shoots 65.2% of his field goals from this distance, and Gafford puts up 95.8% of his shots within 10 feet of the rim. Washington's Marvin Bagley III is questionable with a back injury; he is totaling 15.5 PPG in his eight games in D.C. and 86.0% of his field goals come from within 10 feet of the hoop. If Bagley is active, the Wizards have all the tools they need to expose Miami's interior defense.

As the Association's third-worst unit, the Wizards' defense is always a concern. They have a solid perimeter defense, though, giving up the ninth-fewest three-point shots each game. This could be a big key against the Heat, who tout the seventh-best three-point percentage.

Ultimately, I believe Washington has enough to cover the spread, especially with their paint attack.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.