NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 5/11/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 5/11/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

Over 217.5 (-110)

Fortunately for fans and bettors of the hardwood, Saturday brings us two contentious postseason showdowns tied at 1-1 apiece. Up first on the weekend slate will be the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks from American Airlines Center.

As Game 3 of the Western Conference semis, we have officially reached the nitty-gritty. In the opener, a young, explosive Thunder team electrified the Mavericks. Of course, the Mavs rallied in Game 2 to steal a contest in Oklahoma City. So, what should we expect as the series travels down the I-35 corridor to Dallas?

Thus far, Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the top scorer in both contests, shelling out a combined 62 points. Still, the performance of his running mate -- center Chet Holmgren -- was less consistent. OKC will need more than the 11 points and 6 rebounds that Holmgren contributed on Thursday.

In Saturday's bid, I imagine Dallas will once again look to lean on their stars and experience. 25-year-old Luka Doncic still appears to be a mismatch for any one defender. Additionally, Kyrie Irving has been highly active in myriad ways, be it scoring, passing or defending the perimeter.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the line is currently set at Mavericks -2.5. Considering the collective talent and tempo on the floor, over 217.5 total points (-110 odds) feels like the wisest angle for this playoff affair.

In 2024, Dallas displayed a 100.1 PACE, which was sixth-highest in the NBA. From there, Oklahoma City ranked 8th overall with a 99.8 PACE. Also, we've seen an average of 220.5 PPG throughout Games 1 and 2. When surveying regular-season scoring clips, these sides poured out a combined 238.0 PPG this year.

The prediction model at numberFire also echoes strong support for over 217.5 points in Big D, showing an estimated score of 116.82-115.67 (with the Thunder on top). That approximates to 232.5 points for Saturday's border battle.

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers

Derrick White Over 3.5 Mades Threes (+124)

Following Thunder-Mavs, we'll be treated to Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. As alluded to, this series is also tied 1-1. Considering Cavs center Jarrett Allen has not played since the opening round, Cleveland should feel fortunate returning home in this fashion.

After losing at TD Garden on Thursday, Boston feels like they let one slip away. The series will shift to Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse this weekend, but I like the Celtics to bounce back in enemy territory.

Although I'm confident that Boston will win outright (-350 moneyline), I'm back and forth when it comes to laying eight points ATS. With that, the Player Threes prop market at FanDuel Sportsbook has caught my eye.

Wily veteran Derrick White is coming off his best three-point shooting campaign over a seven-year NBA career. In 2023-24, he knocked down shots from beyond the arc at a 39.6% clip. Still, he has been noticeably better these playoffs, upping that three-point conversion rate to 45.3%.

FanDuel Sportsbook has White listed with a set total of 3.5 made three-pointers. Currently, the over is priced with advantageous +124 odds, which implies a 44.6% probability. With White attempting 9.1 threes per game this postseason, I believe he can convert on four or more from downtown.

In the 2024 NBA Playoffs, White has crossed over 3.5 made threes in four of seven (57.1%) contests for the C's. However, he was just one-of-eight from distance in his most recent outing. In Game 1 against the Cavaliers, White cashed seven three-pointers.

With not much value on the Celtics ML, I think White's three-point prop fills that void. I expect Boston to go on several runs this Saturday -- many of which to be perpetuated by White's outside shooting.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.