NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: DUDE Wipes 250

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: DUDE Wipes 250

Locks do not exist in betting. We can't guarantee the planet will be here in a week (too grim?), so saying any sporting outcome will without a doubt happen is inaccurate.

But it sure feels like Aric Almirola's gonna win this week's NASCAR Xfinity Series race.

The reason? I'm not betting him.

I've bet Almirola to win in every Xfinity Series race he has run this year. He failed to do so in any of them, despite winning both stages in last week's race and finishing second.

Thus, now that I'm off Almirola, it's his time to shine.

The only reason I'm not on Almirola in this week's DUDE Wipes 250 is that the market finally adores him. He's the betting favorite at +300 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, putting his implied win odds at 25.0%.

He's the favorite in my model still; I just can't get to 25.0%. Here's the full run of sims prior to practice.

Win Sims
Top 5
Aric Almirola19.0%42.9%56.9%
Chandler Smith13.1%33.2%47.4%
Cole Custer12.6%31.9%46.5%
Justin Allgaier7.9%23.9%37.5%
Riley Herbst6.9%20.7%33.7%
Brandon Jones5.3%17.0%28.5%
Sheldon Creed4.9%16.7%28.4%
View Full Table

Ideally, Almirola will have middling practice and qualifying speed so I can snag him later. But for now, I bid my sweet prince adieu.

The best value by my numbers is with Almirola's old team, Stewart-Haas Racing. Although I'm a smidge above market on Cole Custer (12.6% vs. 12.5% implied at +700), it's actually his teammate, Riley Herbst, who stands out.

Herbst broke out last year, but you could argue that breakout began the fall before at Martinsville. In that race, Herbst finished third and had a seventh-place average running position. He followed that up with a top-five in last year's playoff race, as well.

Herbst generally runs well on short, flat tracks. In addition to the good runs in Martinsville, he finished top five in both Phoenix races last year. He had an eighth-place average running position at Richmond, as well.

Xfinity races at Martinsville have been chaotic, so I don't mind dipping down a bit on the leaderboard. Herbst is a healthy value, sitting at 6.7% for me versus his 5.3% implied odds at +1800, and with his recent runs here, it's value I buy into.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You have a chance to get $200 in Bonus Bets if your first bet wins—valid across all sports until April 9th! See the promotions page for more information.

Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.