NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Dover Spring Race

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Dover Spring Race

Because tracks like Dover are so sparse on the current NASCAR Xfinity Series schedule, it's easy to forget who gets a bump up.

Dover is unique in that it's a high-banked, one-mile track -- a combination provided by precisely zero other tracks on the circuit. Bristol is the only other high-banked track shorter than 1.5 miles, and that plus Nashville are the only other concrete tracks.

Plus, the Xfinity Series goes to each of those just once per year, so dominance on these tracks can be masked.

I think we're seeing that in the betting markets for Saturday's race in Dover.

There's a driver my model really likes with a history of running well at Bristol and Dover. He's high in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, but I still think he's too low.

That guy is Cole Custer.

Here's the full run of sims before practice and qualifying, which have Custer as the favorite.

Top 5
Cole Custer19.0%44.5%60.3%
Justin Allgaier15.5%39.4%55.7%
Chandler Smith15.2%38.1%55.3%
Ryan Truex9.1%27.7%44.0%
Austin Hill6.9%21.5%35.9%
Sheldon Creed5.4%17.8%31.4%
Sam Mayer5.0%16.8%29.3%
View Full Table

Is it a bit ambitious to have Custer at 19.0% when his implied odds at +550 are 15.4%?


Do I agree with the model that Custer should be the favorite?

Also yes.

It's in large part due to what Custer did at Bristol and Dover in Cup. He ran only four Dover races before being demoted back to Xfinity, but he finished top 15 in all of them, including a pair of top-10s. He added an eighth-place run in Bristol, showing that he just generally runs well on concrete.

We've seen those strong runs in Xfinity, too. Custer won here in 2019 -- the final year before he was promoted to Cup -- and he led 155 of 200 laps in the other race that season. He didn't win here or Bristol last year, but he did lead 109 laps in Bristol and hold a sixth-place average running position in Dover.

Custer's not a longshot, by any means, so it's not like bookmakers are asleep at the wheel. I just think he absolutely warrants betting interest at this number.

The other two drivers who are at least slight values are Sheldon Creed and Parker Retzlaff.

Creed is 5.4% in the sims versus 4.8% implied at +2000. Creed doesn't have the same concrete track record as Custer, but he is driving in elite equipment at Joe Gibbs Racing. I think that justifies the enthusiasm.

As for Retzlaff, he's a massive longshot at +30000, and longshots are longshots for a reason. But he has shown good speed on shorter tracks in his career, so I was a bit surprised betting odds on him were so long. I have him at 0.6%, so the odds this bet fails are 99.4%, but that's still better than the 0.3% implied odds he wins. He's also 6.7% to finish top five, if you have access to a more forgiving market.

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Which drivers stand out to you on Saturday? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.