NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Ag-Pro 300

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Ag-Pro 300

Last week was a soul-crusher for Ryan Sieg.

Sieg has run 342 career races in the NASCAR Xfinity Series; he has never won.

He almost got there in Texas. He took the lead with 18 laps to go and was leading at the white flag. But Sam Mayer caught him and made the pass, beating Sieg by 0.002 seconds.


Luckily for Sieg, he may be able to wipe that taste from his mouth quickly. The Xfinity Series is in Talladega this weekend for the Ag-Pro 300, and Sieg is skilled on pack tracks.

My model views Sieg as a value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds. And the other guy who is a value is driving for the team Sieg owns.

Here's the full run of sims prior to practice and qualifying. With only 38 drivers in the field, the final two drivers in my model's rankings -- Caesar Bacarella and Dawson Cram -- were omitted.

Top 5
Austin Hill10.6%31.2%47.7%
Riley Herbst6.3%18.1%29.0%
Ryan Truex6.1%18.8%29.4%
A.J. Allmendinger5.9%18.6%30.2%
Parker Kligerman5.7%16.5%26.5%
Cole Custer5.1%15.8%25.0%
Justin Allgaier5.0%14.9%25.1%
View Full Table

Sieg is at 4.8% to win in the sims; his implied odds at FanDuel Sportsbook at +3000 are just 3.2%. That makes him the biggest value in the field.

As mentioned, Sieg is very good on pack tracks. Of his three career runner-ups, one was at Talladega in 2020. He has finished top-five in 30.8% of his career Talladega races, and those four top-fives account for 23.5% of his career Xfinity Series top-fives.

Sieg had a chance to win this race last year. He was leading the race with less than 10 laps to go before getting caught up in someone else's wreck. I think there's more than enough here to suggest Sieg is worth a look at +3000.

As mentioned, though, another RSS Racing driver is also a value in the sims. That's Matt DiBenedetto.

DiBenedetto is a nightmare to model. He ran the past two seasons in the Truck Series with Rackley W.A.R., an under-funded team with poor equipment. The model penalizes him for driving for a poor team (better drivers tend to get better rides), so that data dings him quite a bit.

On the flip side, DiBenedetto has shown talent in the past. He earned a ride at Wood Brothers Racing in the Cup Series not that long ago. That signal matters to the model, as well.

One key, though, is that DiBenedetto won at this very same track for Rackley W.A.R. in 2022. Even though the team stunk, he still managed to get a win.

Thus, if I were to make a bet on whether my model was directionally too low or too high on DiBenedetto, I'd think it's too low. Even with that, I have him at 3.2% to win, up from 2.8% implied at +3500.

Between the two, I prefer Sieg. He has more experience in this Xfinity car, and he has a long track record of success in the draft. But both are worthy shots, in my eyes, and I agree with the model that both are undervalued in the betting market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.