NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: Long John Silver's 200

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: Long John Silver's 200

This week's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race at Martinsville is fully devoid of Cup Series regulars.

In fact, the only driver who is a full-timer in a higher series is Sammy Smith. Smith is driving for Spire Motorsports, so he's obviously in quality equipment, and his background is in racing short tracks.

But Smith isn't nearly the obstacle that Kyle Busch is, and I think he's overvalued in the betting markets. It's opening up value elsewhere.

Here's how my simulations see the field prior to practice and qualifying.

Win Sims
Top 5
Christian Eckes20.2%46.1%61.0%
Corey Heim16.2%38.9%53.4%
Ty Majeski12.1%32.8%48.3%
Sammy Smith11.6%31.4%46.4%
Ben Rhodes7.5%22.3%36.6%
William Sawalich5.3%16.6%30.3%
Matt Crafton3.7%13.6%24.4%
View Full Table

Smith is +250 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds, putting his implied odds at 28.6%. He's at 11.6% for me, and I think the sims are handling him properly.

Christian Eckes is close to being a bet (20.2% versus 20.0% implied at +400), but the best value lies lower on the board. The three who interest me most are Ben Rhodes (+1400), Matt Crafton (+3500), and Jake Garcia (+15000).

Rhodes excels on short, flat tracks. He's a two-time series champion thanks to his strength at Phoenix, and he has had a top-six average running position in five of the past eight Martinsville races. He's not that far above market for me (7.5% versus 6.7% implied), but I don't hate it.

The value on Crafton is similar (3.7% vs. 2.8% implied). Although his two career Martinsville wins happened long ago, he does have two top-fives here in the past four trips. He was in the hunt to win at Bristol a couple of weeks ago, so Father Time hasn't fully dismissed Crafton just yet.

The most fun value, though, is Garcia. He's 2.2% for me, well above his 0.7% implied odds at +15000. Garcia is young, and Martinsville favors experience, but he did have top-five finishes in Richmond and Phoenix last year, both short, flat tracks.

Garcia is driving in quality equipment at TRICON as all of his teammates are +4000 to win or shorter, including Corey Heim at +400. It's not necessarily an upgrade as he was with a good team last year with McAnally Hilgemann, but he showed he can put that equipment to good use. If you want a small bet on a longshot, you could do a lot worse than Garcia.

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Which driver do you like for Friday night? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.