NASCAR

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Picks: Rackley Roofing 200

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Picks: Rackley Roofing 200

In the duel between Corey Heim and Christian Eckes in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, Heim holds the edge.

Although Eckes leads in points, Heim has four wins to Eckes' two, and Heim has two more top-fives, as well. If it's finishing upside you want, Heim is currently the guy.

Thus, you'd expect Heim would be the favorite for my betting model entering this weekend's Rackley Roofing 200 in Nashville. I thought the same.

But once the sims were run and the dust settled, it was actually Eckes on top.

Here's the full run of sims prior to practice and qualifying. These two are a tier above the pack -- but it's Eckes who comes in P1.

Driver
Win
Podium
Top 5
Christian Eckes24.5%50.5%63.4%
Corey Heim20.0%46.5%61.3%
Ty Majeski7.8%26.0%42.1%
Nick Sanchez6.5%21.7%35.9%
Tyler Ankrum5.1%16.2%27.8%
Taylor Gray4.5%16.7%29.0%
Ben Rhodes3.9%14.3%25.1%
View Full Table

If I had to guess, I'd bet this preference for Eckes comes down to how he has run on concrete. Eckes has had a first-place average running position in each of the past two Truck Series races at Bristol. Heim actually wound up winning one of those, but Eckes has been a staple at the front.

It also does seem like Eckes ticks up a bit on the non-short tracks. Although his two wins this year were on short tracks, all four of his wins last year came on tracks a mile or longer. He has had a top-three average running position in three of six races on non-drafting ovals a mile or longer in length this year, as well.

Based on the sims, the break-even price on Eckes in the betting market is +309. It might feel rich, and it's possible I'm underrating Heim, but I do think buying into Eckes at the right price is warranted.

The other driver worth monitoring is Tyler Ankrum. Betting markets seem to have soured on Ankrum, who has finished outside the top 10 in 6 of the past 8 races. The lone exceptions both came at short tracks.

Based on Ankrum's talent and equipment, I'd expect some positive regression. He finished runner-up in Vegas with a fifth-place average running position, so he has speed. Ankrum is also good on concrete with a fifth-place finish in Bristol this year and top-10 runs the past two Nashville races despite worse equipment than he's in now.

My model has the break-even price on Ankrum at +1861. Once you get to +2500 or longer, I'm more than comfortable betting on a return to form for Ankrum.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.