Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Picks: Wednesday 4/10/24

With Indian Wells and the Miami Open in the books, the ATP Tour's clay season is here as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Monte-Carlo Masters kicks things off for the men, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value on Wednesday? Note that play begins at 5:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Monte-Carlo Masters Best Bet

Holger Rune vs. Sumit Nagal

Rune 2-0 Sets (-125)

Sumit Nagal is the first Indian player to win a Masters 1000 match on clay after defeating Matteo Arnaldi in the first round, and he's the first player from India to even qualify for the Monte-Carlo Masters since 1982.

As awesome as those feats are for Nagal, keeping this magical run going will be incredibly difficult against world No. 7 Holger Rune.

While Rune is coming off a disappointing Miami Open, he emerged from the early hard-court season with a 13-7 record that included strong showings at several tournaments. He reached the finals at Brisbane, the semifinals in Acapulco, and the quarterfinals at Indian Wells.

This might be Rune's first clay match of 2024, but he's no stranger to success on this surface after going 16-4 on clay over the last 52 weeks, tied for the best win percentage behind just Carlos Alcaraz. Not only did Rune finish runner-up at last year's Monte-Carlo Masters, but he also won a title in Munich and was a finalist in Rome.

On the other hand, Nagal entered this event with a 10-23 career record and a 3-7 record on clay. The 26-year-old is up to a career-high 93rd in the rankings, and this is the first season he's ever cracked the top 100.

Nagal is a feel-good story, but everything suggests that this will be a mismatch.

Rune is a -375 favorite, which implies 79% win odds. Models from both Tennis Abstract (88% win probability) and Massey Ratings (85%) are even more convinced Rune will be victorious.

Given the lack of value on the moneyline, backing a straight-sets win is a great way to get more appealing odds. When these two faced off in their lone head-to-head in 2023, Rune won both sets.

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