Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Picks: Thursday 4/11/24

With Indian Wells and the Miami Open in the books, the ATP Tour's clay season is here as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Monte-Carlo Masters kicks things off for the men, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value on Thursday? Note that play begins at 5:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Monte-Carlo Masters Best Bet

Alex De Minaur vs. Alexei Popyrin

Popyrin ML (+220)

Australians Alex de Minaur and Alexei Popyrin will face each other in the third round, and the latter finds himself as a clear underdog. But this could be an enticing number to pick Popyrin to deliver us an upset.

For starters, Popyrin is coming off a rather shocking result against defending Monte-Carlo Masters champion Andrey Rublev. Not only did Popyrin defeat Rublev in straight sets, but he did so 6-4, 6-4 in just one hour and 40 minutes.

While the 24-year-old has a fairly mediocre ranking (46th) and entered the event with a .500 record on clay, he did quite well on the surface in 2023. Popyrin went 10-5 on clay last year (T-15th on Tour), which included a run to the round of 16 in Rome and a title win in Umag.

Given that de Minaur is the world no. 11, he's a deserving favorite, particularly after posting a 19-6 record in the early hard-court season. However, clay has never been his strong suit, opening the door for Popyrin. In 2023, de Minaur was just 5-5 on this surface, and he owns a mere 41.3% career clay win percentage.

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings project Popyrin to have a 45.9% win probability, whereas his +220 odds imply a 31.3% chance of winning. Perhaps de Minaur's strong 2024 form proves to be too much, but Popyrin's upset of Rublev and recent track record on clay give room for optimism.

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Casper Ruud

Over 2.5 Total Sets (+120)

Hubert Hurkacz won his first career clay title (Estoril) immediately before this event and thanked his friend Casper Ruud for some "clay court tips" at the beginning of the event.

While they ultimately never crossed paths in Estoril (Ruud lost in the semifinals), they will here in Monte Carlo. Whether or not Hurkacz truly learned anything from Ruud at the beginning of the month, he now finds himself on a six-match win streak on this surface.

Ruud would be the right person to ask, though. The 25-year-old has been a finalist at the French Open two years in row, and while he couldn't quite get over the hump in either instance, losing to all-time greats Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic is nothing to be ashamed of. Ruud has a stellar 72.8% win percentage on this surface and 9 of his 10 titles have come on clay.

For those reasons, it's hard to pick Hurkacz to come away with the win, as clay has typically been his weakest surface, but his recent play could be a sign that he can keep things competitive in a battle of top-10 players.

Tennis Abstract projects Ruud wins 58.8% of the time, which isn't nearly as high as his 69.2% implied odds as a -225 favorite. Although both of their head-to-head meetings came in 2022, they split them, with Ruud winning in four sets at the French Open and Hurkacz getting revenge in three sets at Canada.

Given that neither player has defeated the other in straight sets, and Hurkacz may have momentum on his side, betting that this one needs a final set to determine a victor is intriguing.

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