Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Picks: Tuesday 4/9/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Picks: Tuesday 4/9/24

With Indian Wells and the Miami Open in the books, the ATP Tour's clay season is here as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Monte-Carlo Masters kicks things off for the men, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Tuesday's matches? Note that play begins at 5:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Monte-Carlo Masters Best Bets

Sebastian Korda vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Davidovich Fokina ML (-110)

Given that both Sebastian Korda and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina have struggled to make deep runs at tournaments so far in 2024, it's reasonable to see why this is being priced as a pick 'em.

Korda enters this event with a 10-8 record while Davidovich Fokina is at 8-7. Sebastian hasn't strung together more than two straight wins at any point this season, and Alejandro hasn't done so since January.

That does make it difficult to pick a side, but there could be value in backing Davidovich Fokina.

While Korda has a decent 18-14 career record on this surface, he's coming off a disastrous clay season in 2023. Last spring, he participated in three clay tournaments but won just one of four matches. Not only were the results disappointing, but that also means he's played just four clay matches since the conclusion of the 2022 French Open.

Davidovich Fokina didn't light the world on fire with his clay performance last season, but he finished above .500 (8-7) and certainly got far more reps in if nothing else.

Due to those results, Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings favor the Spaniard on this surface, projecting a 62% win probability. Massey Ratings might not be quite as bullish but still sees Davidovich Fokina winning 57% of the time. In either case, this suggests he should be the favorite, making him someone to consider at these odds.

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Jack Draper

Hurkacz -1.5 Games (-112)

Hubert Hurkacz is not only the world No. 8, but he just won a clay tournament (Estoril) before this event and is 19-8 overall this season. This is in stark contrast to Jack Draper (9-6), who's barely inside the top 40 and hasn't played on clay since last May.

And yet Hurkacz is just a -137 favorite, which seems surprisingly low (57.8% implied odds). Both Tennis Abstract (75% win probability) and Massey Ratings (72%) believe he should be a much bigger favorite. Even 70% implied odds would put him at -233.

Draper has certainly had his moment this season, advancing to the finals at Adelaide and the semifinals at Acapulco. But he doesn't come in with a lot of momentum after quick exits at both Indian Wells and the Miami Open, winning just one match between the two.

While Draper notably knocked Hurkacz out of the US Open last year, Hurkacz won their last meeting on clay -- which just so happened to come at this very event. Hurkacz leads their head-to-head 2-1 overall.

Still just 22 years old, Draper still has his best tennis ahead of him and has proven he's capable of pulling off the upset. However, at these odds, this looks like a buy-low opportunity on Hurkacz, and betting on him to cover the small spread adds further value.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.