Monday Night Football Preview: Can the Vikings Keep Up Against the 49ers?

The San Francisco 49ers (5-1) will visit the Minnesota Vikings (2-4) for Week 7’s primetime edition of Monday Night Football.

The 49ers are, on paper and in practice, a better team than the Vikings, but injuries will shake things up for both squads, so we should be in for an interesting matchup. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. EST and can be watched on ABC and ESPN.

The 49ers were handed their first loss of the season last week against the Cleveland Browns. It seemed as though San Francisco would hold tight to their undefeated record a bit longer, but the injury exits of their two offensive stars, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, made things complicated for Brock Purdy against a top-ranked Cleveland defense.

Last week’s defeat will by no means define this Niners team -- they still enter Week 7 with +460 Super Bowl odds (second-shortest behind the Kansas City Chiefs).

However, with Samuel out due to a shoulder injury, McCaffrey billed as questionable, and top-ranked offensive tackle Trent Williams doubtful for tonight's competition, backup players will need to step up, and we should get a glimpse into how San Francisco handles adversity under the lights.

The Vikings, meanwhile, have been a product of their own underperformance this season. A win total that was once set at 8.5 in the preseason has since plummeted to 6.5. Their playoff chances have taken a similar hit -- they stood at +104 prior to Week 1 and have since increased to +270 entering Monday.

The loss of stud receiver Justin Jefferson does Minnesota's case no favors. Jefferson will be sidelined four-to-six weeks with a hamstring injury, and it's hard to replace a player who had been averaging 114.2 yards per game.

49ers at Vikings Week 7 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: 49ers -7.0 (-104)
• Total: 44
• Moneyline:
  • 49ers: -330
  • Vikings: +265

49ers at Vikings Week 7 Matchup Analysis

The spread shows that the 49ers are, as expected, the favorites for Monday. According to numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, San Francisco is the top-ranked team in the league, while you'd need to scroll down the rankings to find the Vikings in the 19th spot.

It's fair to say this is the 49ers' game to lose, especially given that Minnesota's two wins this season were against bottom-five teams (the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears). However, something should be said for how close the Vikings have kept their games.

The Vikings have yet to lose by more than a touchdown; they are losing games by an average of five points this season.

Further, each loss has come at the hands of a top-13 ranked team (the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers), so their strength of schedule thus far has been the real deal.

With Jefferson gone, Kirk Cousins will need to get the likes of Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn, and T.J. Hockenson going early.

The 49ers' defense is somewhat of a fortress. They've let up only 20 or more points once this season and rank 5th in numberFire's defense power rankings. They do allow 197.8 passing yards per game (10th), which is still solid, but could be a territory that Cousins and his receivers could exploit, particularly given that San Francisco is allowing just 80.2 yards on the ground (5th).

Purdy has emerged as a force to be reckoned with this season. He boasts the league's second-best Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back behind only Tua Tagovailoa.

But, he struggled immensely last week, throwing for a mere 125 yards on a dismal 26.7% passing success rate. To be fair, he was facing the top-ranked pass defense in the league, so we can reasonably infer that any QB's numbers would drop with this competition. However, it does beg the question of how good Purdy really is, particularly because he was forced to play without two of his top offensive targets in Samuel and McCaffrey for some of this game.

Purdy's numbers undoubtedly benefit from the strength of who surrounds him, so it should be interesting to see how he performs with one fewer offensive weapon readily available in Samuel. Fortunately for Purdy and the Niners, McCaffrey is expected to play tonight even though his questionable status still stands as of Monday morning.

Minnesota's defense has been handing out a substantial number of points this season, averaging 22.5 points allowed per game (21st). This, paired with Samuel's absence and McCaffrey's potential limitations, should leave the door open for other San Francisco receivers, such as George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk, to make a big splash.

As if the deck wasn't already stacked in San Francisco's favor, it's pertinent to note that the Vikings give up the longest opponent time of possession in the league, while the 49ers give up the fourth-least.

As the game outcome is concerned, all signs point to the 49ers grabbing their seventh win of the season, but as the spread is concerned, I'd take a second look at how close Minnesota has been keeping their games, even though they will be without Jefferson.

49ers vs. Vikings Prop Bets

K.J. Osborn Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

With Kirk Cousins' far-and-away preferred target out of this game, the door is wide open for alternative Minnesota receivers to get decent looks.

K.J. Osborn filled in this role last week, touting a 92.7% snap rate and 100.0% route rate. He led the team in this regard and tied Jordan Addison with a 16.7% target share.

Though Osborn is only averaging 35.7 receiving yards per game, he is averaging 48.5 yards in his last two games where Jefferson was either out or limited.

He will be in the mix with Addison, Hockenson, and Alexander Mattison, so don't expect Osborn to be the main target option, but he will undoubtedly see the field for more than enough time to clear this bar.

numberFire's model anticipates Osborn to go for 52.79 yards tonight, leaving some decent wiggle room between the set line and the projection.

Alexander Mattison Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Siding with two Viking players against the 49ers may seem like a fool's errand, but the lines are low enough, and the resources for Cousins limited enough, that I think Mattison should be primed to clear the over on this prop.

Mattison is averaging 17.3 receiving yards per game this season, but that includes an outlier game where he was targeted once for three yards.

Now that Jefferson is out, Mattison should get more looks -- we already saw this last week when he was targeted seven times for 28 yards. He touted a 23.3% target share (second among all Minnesota players) in Week 6.

The 49ers hardly let up anything on the ground. They give up only 58.0 rush yards per game to running backs, so I don't foresee this to be the place where Mattison gets going.

However, San Francisco has been giving up some decent yardage in the passing game to running backs, who are averaging 33.5 receiving yards per game against them.

There has yet to be a game this season where the Niners gave up fewer than 25 receiving yards to the opposition's running backs, and I'm siding with that streak to continue tonight.

George Kittle To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+1200)

It's hard not to like the Niners' receivers tonight. The Vikings rank 22nd in passing touchdowns allowed per game, plus Samuel's absence should mean that the wealth is shared with a smaller pot.

George Kittle has been a fairly consistent end zone target for Brock Purdy.

Kittle touts a 15.4% red zone target share (behind Samuel, McCaffrey, and Brandon Aiyuk), but his 42.9% end zone target share leads the team.

His odds to reach the end zone tonight stand at +160, and there's a good reason why I'm siding with the better-valued To Score 2+ Touchdowns prop at +1200.

Kittle has only scored in one game this season, but in that game, he completed the hat trick and reeled in three touchdowns.

He saw a similar trend last season. There were seven games in which Kittle scored, and four of these games were multiple-touchdown games. Historically, when it rains, it pours for Kittle.

In three games in which Purdy and Kittle suited up while Deebo Samuel was out, Kittle reached the end zone five times (two touchdowns in two out of three games).

It will rarely not be a tall order for a tight end to reach the end zone twice in one game, but given the history here, I think the value may be too good to ignore.

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