MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Red Sox-Rays (5/22/24)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Red Sox-Rays (5/22/24)

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Red Sox vs. Rays Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
  • Spread: Rays -1.5 (+168)
  • Total: 7.5
  • Moneyline:
    • Red Sox: +110
    • Rays: -130

Best Bet

Red Sox Moneyline (+110)

The Boston Red Sox (25-24) will look to complete the series sweep over the Tampa Bay Rays (25-25) this evening, and with +110 moneyline odds available, I feel comfortable backing the BoSox to do just that.

Brayan Bello will make his third start since returning from a stint on the 15-Day IL. While Bello has been the weak spot of an otherwise dominant Boston rotation, he's still rocking with a fair 3.96 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 3.72 SIERA, and 1.13 WHIP through seven starts.

His 1.98 HR/9 certainly draws room for concern, but I think he can manage against a lackluster Tampa Bay lineup.

This season, the Rays own a .234 BA (18th), .297 wOBA (26th), .355 SLG (28th), .121 ISO (29th), 28.7% hard-hit rate (24th), and 24.1% K% (10th) versus right-handed pitchers.

Isaac Paredes is in for a super solid matchup against the righty, but past him, there's not an overly intimidating out for Bello. The Rays are averaging just 0.82 home runs per game (tied for third-lowest) and 4.00 runs per game (tied for ninth-lowest).

Past Bello, the Red Sox tout one of the best bullpens in the league. They come in with a 3.41 ERA (seventh-best), 3.68 xFIP (fifth), 3.41 SIERA (eighth), and 15.92 win probability advancement (fifth).

If Boston's arms can show up against the team that has been producing just 3.5 runs per their last eight games, I think they'll get enough insurance runs to secure a win.

Ryan Pepiot will be on the bump for Tampa Bay after being reinstated from the 15-day IL due to a lower leg injury. Through 36 2/3 IP, he has posted a 3.68 ERA, 2.94 xERA, 3.62 xFIP, 1.23 HR/9 ratio, and 29.1% K%.

That expected ERA and strikeout rate are rock-solid, but he's prone to the long ball and has allowed a 51.1% fly-ball rate, the sixth-highest rate among 140 starters who have pitched at least 30 innings.

In his first start back, we could see Pepiot struggle against a Red Sox lineup that is generating a .421 SLG (tied for fourth-best), .179 ISO (fourth), .317 wOBA (ninth), and 39.5% fly-ball rate (sixth) versus righties.

Boston has hit 64 doubles (fourth-most), 11 triples (second-most), and 46 home runs (fourth-most) against right-handed pitchers this season. It doesn't help Tampa Bay's case that Pepiot has stark home versus away numbers.

Pepiot has pitched 12 scoreless innings on the road, while he's let up 15 ER through 24 2/3 IP at Tropicana Field. His home numbers, which include a 5.47 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 54.5% fly-ball rate, and 1.82 HR/9, will stabilize with a meatier sample, but they are nonetheless noteworthy.

Tampa Bay's bullpen comes in with a 4.29 ERA (21st), 4.59 xFIP (27th), 4.04 SIERA (26th), and 1.33 HR/9 (29th).

In a matchup where Boston has a few clear edges, I'll side with the plus odds that they can bring the brooms out in this one.

Best Prop

Rafael Devers To Record An RBI (+130)

His 6-game home run streak may have been snapped last night, but Rafael Devers is still riding an 11-game hit streak and is in a great spot to bring in a run tonight.

Devers is clearly red-hot and enters the night with a .313 BA, .687 SLG, and 194 wRC+ against righties.

He also sports a .374 ISO (second-best in MLB), 44.7% hard-hit rate (ninth-best in MLB), and 43.4% fly-ball rate against this handedness.

Pepiot is a fly-ball pitcher and has surrendered 1.42 HR/9 to lefties in his career. The friendly matchup is there and we're probably getting kinder-than-should-be odds on this prop.

Since being moved to the cleanup spot in Boston's batting order on May 8th, Devers has recorded at least one RBI in 7 out of 13 games. It's a small sample, but Devers notched 52 total RBIs through 72 games in the cleanup spot last season, so I like the shake we are getting with these +130 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.