MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Nationals-Dodgers (4/16/24)

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Nationals vs. Dodgers Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (-140)
• Total: 9.5
• Moneyline:
  • Nationals: +225
  • Dodgers: -275

Best Bet

Dodgers Over 5.5 Runs (-113)

Today's Free Game of the Day features a matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers (11-8) and Washington Nationals (7-9).

With Patrick Corbin set to take the mound for Washington, the LAD bats could have a field day.

Corbin has been a total liability on the mound over the last few years. He posted a 5.78 ERA across his last three seasons, all while starting at least 31 games each year.

He's gone from bad to worse to kick off his 2024 campaign. Through three starts, Corbin's stat line includes 16 IP, 27 H, 15 ER, and just 10 Ks. This leaves him with an 8.44 ERA, which is the worst average in the MLB among qualified starters.

We know the Dodgers' lineup is lethal. Entering the night, they rank fifth in batting average (.264), fourth in OPS (.769), third in total walks (72), and third in home runs per game (1.32).

They're averaging 5.26 runs per game, and I'd expect this matchup to constitute a tipping of the scales in the right direction.

In 2023, Corbin allowed righties a .301 BA, .501 SLG, and 1.79 HR/9 all while striking them out at a terribly low 15.4% rate. And this season, he's allowing righties a .352 BA, .537 SLG, and 1.35 HR/9, and he's striking them out at only a 10.7% rate.

Since the start of 2023, the Dodgers' active roster has posted a .200 ISO (second-best), 115 wRC+ (ninth-best), and 15.0% HR/FB ratio (fifth-best) against left-handed pitchers.

Pick your poison between established LA righties such as Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez. They are all in a great spot to produce against Corbin. Surround them with Freddie Freeman (+1100 NL MVP odds; fourth-shortest) and Shohei Ohtani (+1400 NL MVP odds; fifth-shortest), and it seems Dodger fans could be in for an action-packed night.

Best Props

Mookie Betts To Hit a Home Run (+290)

It's easy to cringe at such low odds for a home run prop, but we're actually getting a great deal with Mookie Betts in this spot.

Betts has gone yard six times this season, hitting one in 31.57% of his games thus far. A 19-game sample isn't particularly meaty, but these +290 odds suggest just a 25.64% probability.

In 2023, Betts managed a .673 SLG, 189 wRC+, 18.4% HR/FB ratio, 45.0% hard-hit rate, and a monstrous .373 ISO against left-handed pitchers.

Corbin does not know how to strike out righties (10.7% K%) and gave up a 16.8% HR/FB ratio and 34.3% hard-hit rate to this handedness last season.

FanDuel Research's projections are handing Betts a 34.0% probability to hit a long ball in this one.

I would consider backing Betts and this game for FanDuel's Dinger Tuesdays promo.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.