MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Mets-Giants (4/23/24)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Mets-Giants (4/23/24)

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Mets vs. Giants Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
  • Spread: Giants -1.5 (+160)
  • Total: 7.0
  • Moneyline:
    • Mets: +116
    • Giants: -134

Best Bet

Giants Moneyline (-134) / Under 7.0 (-110)

Today’s Free Game of the Day features a matchup between the New York Mets (12-10) and San Francisco Giants (11-13).

It’s Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel Sportsbook, but it’s best to check out our Tom Vecchio’s home run props for today in lieu of considering this game. We might not see any balls go over the fence in the Bay.

Two solid pitchers are set to take the mound in Luis Severino and Logan Webb.

Webb has been consistently proficient for what seems like his entire career. In his last three full seasons, he's posted, at worst, a 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Dating back to 2021, he's rocking with a 3.06 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and a 22.8% strikeout rate (K%), all while letting up just 0.63 HR/9.

Although Webb had one rocky start against a dominant Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, he's been pretty awesome this season. His total stat line through five starts includes 30.2 IP, 10 ER, and 22 Ks, good for a 2.93 ERA.

The New York bats haven’t been silent this season, but there's plenty of reason to believe that Webb can dish out another solid outing. Since 2023, the Mets' active roster is sporting a .233 BA (third-worst), .308 OBP (fifth-worst), .389 SLG (fifth-worst), and 94 wRC+ (fourth-worst) against right-handed pitchers.

The Mets have struggled to find any power against righties with a .157 ISO (eighth-worst) and a 30.2% hard-hit rate (third-worst). This adds intrigue to the under when considering that Webb has surrendered just one home run through 30.2 innings this season.

The Giants may not have a great bullpen, but Webb typically gives them enough innings to make do. San Francisco has let up a total of four runs through Webb’s last three starts, and I'd expect the Mets to be a victim of that tonight.

As for Severino, he seems to have turned a new leaf following an abysmal 2023 campaign. Through four starts, his stat line includes 21.0 IP, 5 ER, and 21 Ks. This leaves him with a 2.14 ERA and a 22.8% K%.

Webb and Severino should be huge in helping this game trend toward the under, but I’d also consider backing SF’s moneyline.

Severino may appear to be back in his All-Star ways, but we’ll have to see a bit more from him to earn our trust back after suffering a 6.65 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and a 2.32 HR/9 through 89.1 innings last season.

Plus, the Giants' active roster has been getting on-base against righties at the seventh-highest rate (.331) since 2023.

In a game that should come down to pitching, I want to side with the under and the steadier starter of the two.

Best Prop

Logan Webb 6+ Strikeouts (+114)

He's no whiff machine, but I think the juice is worth the squeeze with Webb's strikeout prop.

Webb enters the night with just a 17.9% K% and 6.46 K/9. But his punchout numbers are significantly down from last season despite similar, or even more, dominance in other areas.

In 2023, Webb posted a 22.8% K% and 8.08 K/9. He should start to see some regression toward last year’s numbers.

And in looking at Webb's matchups thus far, it's no wonder he's had some trouble whiffing batters. Three of his five opponents rank in the bottom four of K% while four of his five opponents rank in the bottom eight.

The Mets aren’t a particularly strikeout-prone team, touting a 21.1% K% against righties (10th-lowest), but that’s still a higher rate than the majority of Webb’s opposition thus far.

FanDuel Research’s projections forecast 6.26 Ks for Webb in this one.

Dinger Tuesdays are back! Place a pre-live, straight "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game happening April 23rd. You’ll get Bonus Bets for each home run BOTH TEAMS hit in the game! See the promotions page for more information.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.