3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Dinger Tuesday 4/23/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Tuesday's during the MLB season mean one thing -- Dinger Tuesday! Place a pre-live, straight "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game happening on April 23rd. You’ll get Bonus Bets for each home run BOTH TEAMS hit in the game! See the promotions page for more information.

Home Run Props

Michael Busch To Hit a Home Run (+430)

With the wind blowing out to center at Wrigley Field, we'll turn there for a home run prop.

Whenever we see 10+ mph winds blowing out at Wrigley, it's an easy spot to look for some homers since it's a major boost for hitters.

Tonight, we see the visiting Houston Astros with J.P. France on the bump, a pitcher we can look to target for some long balls. This season, France allowed a .479 SLG, 5.12 xFIP, 0.82 HR/9, and 39.5% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters.

This leads me to Michael Busch, who is off to a scorching hot start this season, with elite metrics per BaseballSavant. Busch also comes in with a whopping 204 wRC+, .478 wOBA, .362 ISO, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 50.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

Love this matchup so I'll add Busch to Record an RBI (+155), too.

Ryan O'Hearn To Hit a Home Run (+430)

With immense power, Ryan O'Hearn is a clear target for a homer tonight.

The Baltimore Orioles come in with a 4.62 implied run total and can certainly exceed that in a hurry via the long ball. O'Hearn is crushing the ball this year and sits in the top 95th percentile or higher in xwBOA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel rate, per BaseballSavant. It's all red and it's a beautiful thing to see when we're on him for a homer tonight.

On top of that, O'Hearn has a 169 wRC+, .302 ISO, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.3% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitchers this season.

He's up against Griffin Canning, who allowed a .345 SLG, 4.20 xFIP, 0.86 HR/9, 39.3% fly-ball rate, and 33.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters last season. It's a great matchup for the big-swinging O'Hearn, so I'll add his To Record an RBI (+130), as well.

Cal Raleigh To Hit a Home Run (+320)

A 4.52 implied run total for the Seattle Mariners is a great spot to look for some offense tonight.

They are on the road to take on the Texas Rangers, who will have Dane Dunning on the mound tonight. Dunning is a bit inconsistent on the mound and this year he has allowed a .586 SLG, 6.22 xFIP, 4.50 HR/9, 57.1% fly-ball rate, and 52.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

Of course, those numbers come from a smaller sample size but last season he was at a .433 SLG, 5.12 xFIP, 1.28 HR/9, 38.2% fly-ball rate, and 26.4% hard-contact rate. The numbers from this season should regress a bit and meet last year's numbers in the middle.

This brings me to Cal Raleigh, who is rocking a 142 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .164 ISO, 40.5% fly-ball rate, and 54.1% hard-contact rate versus righties this season. Love the power he has at the plate so I'll add Raleigh To Record an RBI (+125), too.

Dinger Tuesdays are back! Place a pre-live, straight "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game happening April 23rd. You’ll get Bonus Bets for each home run BOTH TEAMS hit in the game! See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.