MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Giants-Red Sox (5/2/24)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Giants-Red Sox (5/2/24)

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Giants vs. Red Sox Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
  • Spread: Giants -1.5 (+146)
  • Total: 9.5
  • Moneyline:
    • Giants: -106
    • Red Sox: -110

Best Bet

Red Sox Moneyline (-110)

The Boston Red Sox (18-13) will look to complete the series sweep over the San Francisco Giants (14-17) this afternoon, and I think they can manage to bring the brooms out.

San Francisco struggles with a 5-10 road record and a -25 run differential, while Boston touts a +41 run differential.

The Red Sox currently have three starting pitchers who are sitting on the 15-day IL, so relief pitcher Josh Winckowski will make his third straight start.

This will, more or less, be a bullpen game for Boston, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

They can probably rely on three to four innings from Winckowski. In his first start, he went for 3 1/3 IP and let up one earned run off of three hits. He went on to pitch three scoreless innings in his second start. The Giants own a .301 OBP (tied for 7th-worst) and 97 wRC+ (12th-worst) against right-handed pitchers.

Past Winckowski, the Red Sox have a bullpen that is sporting a 3.36 ERA (eighth-best), 3.32 SIERA (ninth-best), and 10.17 win advancement (eighth-best). Their bullpen is fresh after relying on relief for just two innings in yesterday's game.

We should see Brennan Bernardino (0.79 ERA), Justin Slaten (0.59 ERA), and Greg Weissert (1.38 ERA) give the BoSox some good innings. These three have allowed just 4 ER through 41 2/3 IP this season. The Boston pitchers have allowed a total of just one run in Winckowski's two starts, so I like their chances to get past a Giants team that is putting up just 3.81 runs per game (10th-fewest).

It doesn't hurt that San Francisco has stolen just 13 bases this season (fourth-fewest), so Boston's abysmal fielders won't have to go up against ambitious baserunners.

Kyle Harrison will be on the bump for the Giants. The lefty has posted a 4.09 ERA and 3.84 xFIP through six starts. While he's walking batters at a super low rate (3.6%), he has let up a sizable 36 H in just 33 IP.

Dating back to 2023, Boston's active roster owns a .338 OBP (eighth-best) and a 9.7% walk rate (sixth-highest) against left-handed pitchers, so they could draw Harrison into a sticker situation than he is used to. They've stolen 28 bases (ninth-most) and are averaging the seventh-most runs per the first inning.

Past Harrison, San Francisco's relief suffers a 5.51 ERA (second-worst) and allows a .262 BA (third-highest) and 1.14 HR/9 (fifth-highest ratio). Look for the Red Sox, who are averaging 4.81 runs per game (ninth-most) to exploit these weak spots.

numberFire's game projections give Boston a 65.7% win chance in this one, which would translate to -192 odds. I'm happy to side with them at a -110 price.

Best Prop

Tyler O'Neill To Hit A Home Run (+340)

Tyler O'Neill has slammed nine home runs (tied for third-most in MLB) this season and is in a good power production spot against Harrison.

Since 2023, O'Neill sports a .489 SLG, .239 ISO, 144 wRC+, and a 40.0% hard-hit rate against southpaws.

While he's seen only 30 plate appearances against lefties this season, he's managed a .363 SLG, 1.136 OPS, .318 ISO, and 206 wRC+ against them in that time. The basis of these stats is off a very small sample but could be helpful in tracking O'Neill, who has taken a huge turn for the better in 2024.

Harrison has allowed 1.57 HR/9 and a 35.9% hard-hit rate against righties in his 13 starts as a major leaguer.

With nice weather conditions and a super friendly home run ballpark in store at Fenway, I like O'Neill's chances in this one.

These +340 odds imply a 22.7% probability. O'Neill has hit at least one dinger in 8 out of 21 games this season (38.0% of contests) while our projections give him a 27.0% chance to hit a long ball.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.