MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Diamondbacks-Reds (5/9/24)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Diamondbacks-Reds (5/9/24)

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Diamondbacks vs. Reds Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
  • Spread: Reds -1.5 (+158)
  • Total: 8.5
  • Moneyline:
    • Diamondbacks: +114
    • Reds: -134

Best Bet

Under 8.5 Runs (-108)

The Arizona Diamondbacks (17-20) will look to complete a series sweep against the Cincinnati Reds (16-20) this afternoon, but rather than picking a team to win, I'm more interested in backing the under.

A pair of righties will take the mound in Slade Cecconi and Hunter Greene, and both of these teams have seen poor production against this handedness.

Cecconi has put up a 4.57 ERA, 4.05 SIERA, and 1.02 WHIP through seven career starts, three of which have come this season. His main issue is power, giving up a 1.45 HR/9 ratio.

He's not a pitcher we would typically target for the under, but in two of his three starts this season, he pitched a total of 12 innings and allowed just 3 ER and 6 baserunners. He could have similar success against a Reds team that has been abysmal against righties.

This season, the Reds are sporting a .208 BA (worst), .281 OBP (second-worst), 80 wRC+ (fourth-worst), and 28.2% K% (second-highest) against right-handed pitchers. Pair that with Cecconi's solid 1.02 WHIP, and it's hard to imagine Cincinnati generating too much offense in this one.

While power is certainly an issue for Cecconi, the Reds have hit the 11th-fewest home runs and are producing the ninth-lowest slugging percentage against righties.

As for Greene, he has managed a 3.12 ERA, 2.43 xERA, 0.45 HR/9 ratio, and 10.49 K/9 this season. Dating back to last season, Greene owns an earth-shattering 29.8% K%, so I'm expecting a smooth afternoon for him against a D-Backs team that is lethal against lefties yet can't get it together against righties.

This season, Arizona struggles with a .218 BA (fourth-worst), .301 OBP (ninth-worst), and 86 wRC+ (sixth-worst) against right-handed pitchers. They're getting hardly any power off this handedness, too, with a .122 ISO (third-worst), .340 SLG (third-worst), and just 21 home runs (tied for third-fewest).

It's not easy to vouch for either side's bullpen, but righties Ryan Thompson (1.23 ERA through 14 2/3 IP) and Kevin Ginkel (3.14 ERA through 14 1/3 IP) can come in and get it done for Arizona while I have faith that Greene can go long and help limit damage on Cincinnati's side.

Best Prop

Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-106)

While Arizona isn't striking out against righties at a particularly high rate (20.5% K%; tied for ninth-lowest), I still like Greene's chances to fan over 6.5 batters in this one.

As mentioned, Greene's punchout numbers since last season include a 29.8% K% and 11.76 K/9. That 29.8% K rate ranks fifth in the entire MLB among pitchers who have logged at least 150 IP in that span.

Greene is averaging 6.7 strikeouts per game and going for an average of 101.1 pitches per game. Given Arizona's ultra-low numbers against righties, Greene has a great opportunity to pitch deep today.

Dating back to last season, Greene is averaging a walloping 8.2 Ks in games where he has stayed out for at least six innings.

FanDuel Research's projections expect Greene to fan a slate-leading 7.72 batters in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.