MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Brewers-Reds (4/8/24)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Brewers-Reds (4/8/24)

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Brewers vs. Reds Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Spread: Brewers -1.5 (+146)
  • Total: 9.0
  • Moneyline:
    • Brewers: -108
    • Reds: -108

Best Bet

Over 9.0 (-114)

The Milwaukee Brewers (6-2) will visit the Cincinnati Reds (5-4) for today's Free Game of the Day. With identical moneyline odds listed for each side of this NL Central showdown, the market isn't playing favorites.

Milwaukee and Cincinnati have started this season in parallel -- at least that's what the numbers show us.

Both teams rank in the top 10 of weighted on-base average (wOBA) with the Brewers touting a .353 wOBA (fourth) and the Reds owning a .327 wOBA (tied for ninth).

It's one thing to get on base, but it's another thing to take advantage of the basepaths, something both teams have done to a perfect tune thus far.

In fact, the Reds (18 stolen bases) and the Brewers (16 stolen bases) rank first and second in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the team (Los Angeles Angels) that ranks 10th in total stolen bases has grabbed just six free bags this season.

Neither team boasts a star-studded batting order, but their ability to piece runs together has led Milwaukee's games to average out at 9.0 runs and Cincinnati's games to average out at 9.44 runs. These runs per game averages paired with a lack of legitimate pitching lead me to the over.

Graham Ashcraft will be on the bump for the Reds. In his season debut, he put up a stat line that included 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 HR, and 5 Ks. But in 2023, Ashcraft posted a 4.76 ERA (17th-worst), 4.96 expected ERA (13th-worst), and struck out batters at just a 17.8% rate (11th-lowest).

The Brewers come into the night with the league's fifth-best batting average and the fourth-best slugging percentage. Milwaukee also walks at the ninth-highest rate. Look for them to wear Ashcraft down in this one.

Tonight will mark Aaron Ashby's first major league start since 2022. A shoulder surgery forced Ashby to sit out the 2023 season, but he has since been recalled from Triple-A to aid a depleted Milwaukee rotation.

Ashby's 2022 numbers included a 4.44 ERA, 3.75 expected ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 10.57 strikeouts per nine innings. Although he showed promise in his sophomore season, he's no ace and extended time away could have him vulnerable in the major league spotlight, especially against a Cincinnati team that has been scoring 5.11 runs per game (10th-most).

Past Ashcraft and Ashby, the Reds and Brewers have gotten remarkably similar yet subpar performances from their bullpens this season. Both teams have pitched exactly 32.1 innings of relief and surrendered 17 earned runs in that span, good for the 10th-worst relief ERA.

numberFire's game projections are split on the outcome, giving the Reds a 50.3% win probability. However, they are expecting 10.18 total runs in this one.

Best Prop

William Contreras To Record an RBI (+135)

With a team-leading eight RBIs to his name and a 9.0 over/under that looks to be trending towards the over, I'm happy to get William Contreras' RBI prop at this price.

Although a whopping five of his eight RBIs came in yesterday's game, Contreras has still helped a batter reach home in half of his games this season. Further, he recorded 78 RBIs through 141 games last season.

Contreras touts a .387 batting average (seventh-best in MLB) and has smashed five extra-base hits through eight games. I'd expect him to find some success against Graham Ashcraft.

Last season, Ashcraft was pretty inept against righties. He allowed right-handed bats to put up a .363 wOBA, .469 SLG, and 37.8% hard-hit rate all while striking them out at just a 15.6% rate.

The righty-on-righty matchup may not seem ideal, but Ashcraft was more vulnerable against this handedness last year while Contreras has gone 0-for-4 at the plate against lefties and 12-for-27 against righties.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.