MLB

MLB Same Game Parlay Bets to Target: Monday 5/13/24

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
MLB Same Game Parlay Bets to Target: Monday 5/13/24

Looking for a new way to bet on Major League Baseball this summer? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!

SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.

Here at FanDuel Research, we're going to provide some SGPs builds to consider based on the games and props available for today, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!

Which correlated bets stand out for today's MLB slate? Let's dig in.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check FanDuel Research's projections to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Same Game Parlay Bets for Monday 5/13/24

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

Adley Rutschman to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)
Baltimore Orioles Over 4.5 Total Runs (+102)

Combined Odds: +229

Jose Berrios had metrics that were a cause for concern entering his last start, and he imploded by giving up seven hits and eight earned runs in 3.2 innings versus the Philadelphia Phillies. The right-handed starter for the Toronto Blue Jays is slated to face another team on the road in the East on Monday with the Baltimore Orioles being the opponent.

Besides being in just the 34th percentile in strikeout rate (20.0%) and 21st percentile in xERA (4.91), Berrios is also in the eighth percentile in average exit velocity (91.3 MPH) and fifth percentile in hard-hit rate (48.9%). With Berrios also recording the worst swinging-strike rate (8.7%) of his career since his rookie campaign in 2016, Adley Rutschman is someone we want to target in this SGP.

While Rutschman has performed better against southpaws this season, he has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Rutschman has at least one hit in 22 of his last 25 games -- including nine multi-hit performances and nine extra-base hits in that span.

For those who use pitcher vs. batter stats, Rutschman has gone 10-for-16 with three extra-base hits and zero strikeouts in 18 career plate appearances versus Berrios. Aside from backing Rutschman, I have confidence that the Orioles can wreak havoc against Berrios and the bullpen of the Blue Jays.

We've already discussed the troubling numbers Berrios is producing, but Toronto's bullpen has also been underwhelming in 2024. If Baltimore can force Berrios to make an early exit, the bullpen of the Blue Jays has the sixth-worst SIERA (4.12), 10th-worst WHIP (1.38), fourth-lowest strikeout rate (19.7%), and the worst HR/9 (1.52).

Taking all of that into account, I am also taking the Orioles to score five-plus runs at home on Monday.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox

Zach Eflin to Record 5+ Strikeouts (-178)
Kutter Crawford Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-154)
First 5 Innings Alternate Total Runs: Under 4.5 (-132)

Combined Odds: +252

Zach Eflin has had an up-and-down start to the campaign for the Tampa Bay Rays, giving up three-plus earned runs in four of his first eight starts and one or fewer earned runs in his other four starts. Strikeouts haven't been consistent for Eflin to begin the year, but he has a positive matchup versus the Boston Red Sox on Monday.

While Eflin is in the 26th percentile in whiff rate (21.6%) and 31st percentile in strikeout rate (19.5%), he is in the 63rd percentile in chase rate (29.3%). Aside from Eflin having five-plus Ks in five of his eight starts thus far, the Red Sox have the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.5%) against right-handed pitching and they have the 12th-highest swinging rate on pitches outside of the zone (31.3%).

Meanwhile, Kutter Crawford also finds himself in a solid matchup against the Rays. Crawford is posting a career-best 3.83 SIERA while being in the 86th percentile in chase rate (32.9%), 55th percentile in whiff rate (25.9%), and 61st percentile in strikeout rate (24.3%).

Along with having five-plus strikeouts in seven of his eight starts, Tampa Bay is tallying the 13th-highest strikeout rate (23.3%) versus right-handed pitchers. Crawford's chase rate could come in handy against a Rays squad that is logging the seventh-highest swinging rate on pitches outside of the zone (33.4%).

With confidence in both of Eflin and Crawford, we'll take the under of 4.5 runs in the first five innings. Eflin is in the 98th percentile in walk rate (2.0%) and 66th percentile in xERA (3.43), so he's certainly capable of keeping the Red Sox contained.

On the other hand, Crawford is in the 81st percentile in xERA (2.99) and has given up more than three earned runs just once in his first eight starts.

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Kyle Tucker to Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)
Brent Rooker to Record a Hit (-180)

Combined Odds: +229

Kyle Tucker has gotten off to a fantastic start this season, and he'll be going up against Ross Stripling and the Oakland Athletics on Monday. While the Houston Astros are my favorite team to stack in MLB DFS, Tucker is the one player I want to focus on in this SGP.

Tucker has been tearing the cover off the baseball, hitting a home run in five of his last six contests, and he has at least one hit in 18 of his last 25 games. Given his recent power surge, Tucker has +450 odds to hit a home run in Monday's Athletics-Astros showdown.

Stripling is in the 15th percentile in xBA (.281), and he just permitted 10 hits and five earned runs in 1.2 innings during his last start. Despite Tucker performing better versus lefties, he still boasts a formidable .402 wOBA, .297 ISO, and 164 wRC+ against righties.

The Athletics could also have success at the plate today with Spencer Arrighetti being the expected starter for the Astros. Even though Arrighetti has flashed upside in the strikeout department, he is in the 33rd percentile in average exit velocity (89.5 MPH) and 11th percentile in xERA (5.63) with four-plus earned runs allowed in three of his five starts.

As a right-handed pitcher, Arrighetti is showing some early reverse splits in his first year in the majors. Across his first five starts, Arrighetti is permitting a .516 wOBA, .718 SLG, and .489 OBP to right-handed hitters, compared to a .342 wOBA, .412 SLG, and .361 OBP to left-handed hitters.

Provided that information, Brent Rooker is a hard-hitting righty I want to take to record a hit. Rooker has a hit in nine of his last 10 games -- including six multi-hit outings -- and his +340 odds to hit a home run are worth a look due to his .342 ISO and 214 wRC+ against same-handed pitching.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.