MLB Same Game Parlay Bets to Target: Friday 4/12/24
Looking for a new way to bet on Major League Baseball this summer? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!
SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.
Here at FanDuel Research, we're going to provide some SGPs builds to consider based on the games and props available for today, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!
Which correlated bets stand out for today's MLB slate? Let's dig in.
Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check FanDuel Research's projections to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
MLB Same Game Parlay Bets for Friday 4/12/24
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Ozzie Albies to Record a Run (-130)
Marcell Ozuna to Record a Hit (-230)
Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 Total Runs (-142)
Combined Odds: +203
It was a lopsided defeat for the Atlanta Braves on Thursday, losing 16-4 at home to the New York Mets with lefty Jose Quintana drawing the start for New York. The Braves are set to face another left-handed starter with Trevor Rogers taking the mound for the Miami Marlins to begin a three-game series on Friday.
What Rogers has struggled with to begin the season is allowing runners on base, giving up five-plus hits and three-plus walks in each of his first two starts in 2024. With Rogers allowing multiple earned runs in both of his starts, we'll be targeting him with a couple of bats from the Braves.
Ozzie Albies hasn't been lighting it up against lefties yet this season, but his career numbers versus southpaws suggest he'll find his groove soon. The switch-hitting second baseman registered a .433 wOBA and 174 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in 2023 while he's yet to record a strikeout in his first 14 plate appearances when facing that split in 2024.
Entering Friday's contest, Albies has tallied at least one hit in eight of his first 11 games this year -- including three straight multi-hit outings -- and he's tied for the second-most runs (10) on the Braves. We'll take Albies to record a run with the talented second baseman expected to bat early in a loaded Atlanta lineup.
One player who could aid Albies in scoring a run is Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is scorching hot to begin the new campaign as he's amid a 10-game hitting streak while leading the Braves in home runs (5) and RBIs (13).
To correlate with Albies scoring a run and Ozuna keeping his hit streak alive, we'll back the Braves to produce five-plus runs on Rogers and the Marlins. Atlanta has tallied five-plus runs in eight of their first 11 games this season, and they've accumulated four-plus runs in 10 of their 11 contests thus far.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox
Elly De La Cruz to Record a Run (-130)
Spencer Steer to Record a Hit (-220)
First 5 Innings Result: Cincinnati Reds (-118)
Combined Odds: +264
Chris Flexen has long been a starting pitcher we've targeted in betting and DFS as he is a pitch-to-contact pitcher, and we'll continue to attack him on Friday with the Cincinnati Reds coming to town to face the Chicago White Sox. Following a 2023 campaign where he was in the 23rd percentile in whiff rate (22.3%) and seventh percentile in strikeout rate (15.9%), Flexen is in the eighth percentile in whiff rate (16.7%) and strikeout rate (10.6%) across two starts in 2024.
The veteran right-handed starter is also in the 22nd percentile in expected ERA (5.86), which is why the Reds carry the highest implied total (5.29) among teams playing on Friday, via numberFire's heat map. This is also why the Reds are my favorite team to stack on Friday's main slate in MLB DFS.
While placing confidence in Cincinnati to wreak havoc against Flexen, we'll take Elly De La Cruz to record a run. Despite hitting in the back half of the lineup to begin the season, Elly has at least one hit in 11 of his first 12 games -- including a current three-game hit streak -- and he leads the Reds with 13 runs.
Hitting behind De La Cruz against righties has been Spencer Steer, who has tallied a hit in nine of his first 12 games while posting six multi-hit outings and leading the team in RBIs (15). Given his impressive start, there's value in taking Steer to record an RBI (+130), as well.
There's a chance we see Steer help Elly score his run by securing a hit with Flexen showing reverse splits throughout his career. Flexen is allowing a .377 wOBA and .367 OBP versus righties compared to a .311 wOBA and .321 OBP to lefties in his seven seasons in the majors.
With the Reds expected to do damage against Flexen early in Friday's matchup, we'll back Cincinnati to secure a lead in the first five innings. The White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball with a 2-10 record, and Flexen has given up three-plus earned runs in both of his starts this year.
Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners
Jordan Wicks Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-156)
Bryce Miller to Record 5+ Strikeouts (-250)
Alternate Total Runs: Under 8.5 (-142)
Combined Odds: +234
We have a matchup between two pitchers off to solid starts in 2024 with the Chicago Cubs set to face the Seattle Mariners on Friday. Jordan Wicks is taking the mound for the Cubs while Bryce Miller will get the nod for the Mariners to begin a three-game series.
Wicks has yet to pitch five-plus innings in a game this season, but he's tallied six-plus strikeouts in both contests. The 24-year-old southpaw on the Cubs is currently in the 84th percentile in whiff rate (33.3%) and 80th percentile in strikeout rate (30.2%) to begin the season, and the Mariners are a plus-matchup for strikeouts.
The Mariners have the highest strikeout rate (29.2%) in the early going of 2024 while also having the highest strikeout rate (25.8%) versus left-handed pitching since the start of the 2023 season. Additionally, Yusei Kikuchi -- a fellow lefty starter -- just tallied nine strikeouts against the Mariners on Wednesday.
As for Seattle, they'll have Miller making his third start of the campaign following back-to-back starts with six-plus strikeouts. While the Cubs aren't a team that Ks much with the 11th-lowest strikeout rate (20.6%) through their first 12 games, Miller is in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate (36.4%) to begin the year, and FanDuel Research's projections have him reaching 5.85 strikeouts.
Taking both pitchers to have solid performances has me expecting a low-scoring output from the Cubs and Mariners. T-Mobile Park -- which is where Seattle plays their home games -- has the worst park factor in the last three years (92) and the third-worst park factor (86) to begin the 2024 campaign.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.