Player

Odds

HR%

Kyle Schwarber leads the entire June 18 FanDuel home run board with a 31% per-game HR rate — the highest of any player on today's full slate. With 25 home runs in just 71 games, Schwarber is averaging a homer every 3.2 games played in 2026, a pace that makes him the most reliable home run prop target in baseball right now. He is the favourite in the NL home run title race and has established himself as one of the most consistent power hitters in the game. Citizens Bank Park consistently rates as one of the best hitter-friendly environments in the National League, and facing Sean Manaea on the road gives the Phillies lineup a live shot at the long ball throughout the game. At +210, Schwarber's odds are the shortest on today's board for a reason — his 31% rate makes him the clear-cut No. 1 pick for June 18.

Juan Soto enters today's game with the second-highest per-game HR rate on the entire June 18 board at 24.6%, recording 15 home runs in just 57 games. Playing in the same game as Schwarber at Citizens Bank Park — one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball — makes this an especially attractive matchup-stacked card. Soto is the prototypical elite power-plus-patience hitter who generates quality contact across all pitch types and locations. At +235 for a player hitting a home run in nearly one out of every four games he plays, this is a strong value play on the visiting side of tonight's nightcap.

Matt Olson is the best pure value bet on today's home run board. His 26.4% per-game HR rate is the third-highest on the slate — yet he is priced at +470, meaning the implied probability (17.5%) sits well below his actual frequency. With 20 home runs in 72 games, Olson is producing at a pace that puts him among the NL's top power hitters, and Truist Park consistently provides a strong left-handed power environment. The gap between his actual HR rate (26.4%) and his implied probability from the odds (17.5%) is the clearest edge on today's entire home run board — this is where the value lies for longer-odds home run backers.

Drake Baldwin has the statistically most surprising HR rate on today's entire board. With 14 home runs in only 49 games, his raw per-game rate of 28.6% is actually the highest of any player in our five picks — yet he is priced at +570. The gap between his actual frequency and implied probability is the most exploitable on the board. Baldwin bats in a productive position in Atlanta's lineup alongside Matt Olson and Michael Harris II, which means he sees quality pitches rather than being pitched around. Both Baldwin and Olson are in the same SF@ATL game at Truist Park at 1:35 PM ET, making that the highest home run concentration matchup on today's full slate — two of our five picks in a single game.

Jackson Chourio rounds out the five picks as Milwaukee's standout power threat at home. With 9 home runs in just 36 games, his 19.4% per-game HR rate is the fifth-highest on today's board and reflects a breakout power season from one of baseball's most exciting young outfielders. American Family Field is a consistently homer-friendly environment, and facing Cleveland's Sonny Gray this afternoon gives Chourio a live look. At +490, Chourio is priced attractively for a player who is hitting a home run in roughly 1 of every 5 games he plays. The Brewers also have Gary Sánchez (+520, 17.1% rate) as a secondary option in the same game if you prefer a catcher power play from this matchup.

🔥 Hottest HR Game Today: SF @ ATL · Truist Park · 1:35 PM ET

SF @ ATL at Truist Park is the richest single home run game on today's slate. Four of the top HR-rate players across both rosters — Matt Olson (26.4%), Drake Baldwin (28.6%), Michael Harris II (17.6%) and Casey Schmitt (20.0%) — are all in this matchup. Willy Adames (15.5%) and Rafael Devers (13.7%) also appear for the Giants. If you are building a same-game parlay around home runs on June 18, this is the game to build it around.

Who is most likely to hit a home run today in MLB?

Kyle Schwarber leads the entire June 18 home run board with both the best odds (+210) and the highest HR rate (31%) — homering in 22 of 71 games in 2026. He plays tonight at Citizens Bank Park against the Mets. Juan Soto (+235, 24.6%) is the second choice. Matt Olson (+470, 26.4%) offers the best value on the board given his rate dramatically outperforms his implied odds. Drake Baldwin (+570, 28.6%) has the highest raw HR rate on the board but is priced longest — the biggest gap between frequency and odds of any pick today.

What is the hottest home run game on today's MLB slate?

SF @ ATL at Truist Park (1:35 PM ET) is the richest home run game on today's slate, featuring four high-rate HR threats: Matt Olson (26.4%, +470), Drake Baldwin (28.6%, +570), Michael Harris II (17.6%, +540) for Atlanta, and Casey Schmitt (20%, +490) for the Giants. Willy Adames (15.5%, +520) and Rafael Devers (13.7%, +630) add further power from the San Francisco side. NYM @ PHI (6:40 PM ET, Citizens Bank Park) is the other strong multi-HR game: Schwarber (31%, +210), Soto (24.6%, +235) and Bryce Harper (19.2%, +430) all appear.

What MLB games are on today, June 18, 2026?

Today's confirmed MLB slate includes: Cleveland Guardians @ Milwaukee Brewers (1:35 PM ET, American Family Field — Sonny Gray vs. Trey Yesavage), San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves (1:35 PM ET, Truist Park), Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers (2:35 PM ET — Jack Leiter vs. Joe Ryan), Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay (4:10 PM ET — Bryan Woo vs. Shane Baz), New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET, Citizens Bank Park — Aaron Nola vs. Sean Manaea). Always confirm final starting lineups 30-60 minutes before first pitch before placing prop bets.