MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 5/8/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET

Orioles -1.5 (-110)

For a DMV staple, Wednesday will provide Game 2 of the Beltway Series. Yesterday, the Baltimore Orioles (23-12) fell short versus the Washington Nationals (18-17) in the nation's capital, but I think the O's are poised to flip the script.

The projected starters in this regional rivalry will be Kyle Bradish and lefty Mitchell Parker. In 2024, Bradish has been stellar for Baltimore, yielding a 3.65 skill-interactive ERA. Conversely, the rookie Parker has also been solid, not allowing any home runs through four starts. Still, with Parker permitting a 41.3% Statcast hard-contact rate, that latter statistic might not hold up against the Orioles.

In this matchup of youthful arms, I like Baltimore on the run line (-110 odds). Comparatively, the O's are the much better offensive side, boasting an AL-leading .747 team OPS. From there, the Orioles have produced the most home runs (54) in MLB to this point. Simply, I do not have them being blanked for a second consecutive night.

For the Nats, Parker appears to be headed in the right direction, but Washington's bullpen is sporting a few unflattering figures. Entering Wednesday, this unit is tagged with a 1.38 WHIP and 1.54 walks issued per game. Those numbers certainly leave room for improvement.

To compound confidence in Baltimore winning by two or more runs tonight, these territorial neighbors are spaced quite far apart in numberFire's metrics. Per numberFire's power rankings, the Orioles (1.57 nERD) are positioned fourth in MLB while the Nationals (-0.54 nERD) are way down at 25th overall.

Houston Astros at New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET

Yankees Moneyline (-152)

As an American League rivalry that has developed in the past decade, the Houston Astros (12-23) versus New York Yankees (24-13) saga has been a little one sided lately. Since September of last year, New York has snapped off eight consecutive wins against Houston.

Considering how things have transpired for the Astros in 2024, I don't mind hopping on this head-to-head streak with the Yankees.

On Wednesday, FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Yanks with -152 odds on the moneyline. Given the matchup on the mound, I don't mind getting in on NY at -152. The probable pitchers tonight in The Bronx are rookie Spencer Arrighetti and southpaw Carlos Rodon.

Notably, Arrighetti is still looking for his first career win. Larger scale, Houston has gone 1-3 in the four games started by the rook. His 8.27 ERA is bound to come down eventually, but he'll need to cut down on self-inflicted harm. Currently, Arrighetti is walking 5.51 batters per nine innings.

The lefty Rodon is showing improvements from his first season in pinstripes. Right now, he holds a 4.16 SIERA, which is respectable. From there, Rodon's 1.28 WHIP is lower than all but two of his previous 10 seasons.

Transparently, these sides seem to be trending in opposite directions. The Yankees have scored 4.76 runs per game while the 'Stros are at 4.4 runs per game. Being that New York's bullpen has a collective 2.22 ERA, I like them to win at home. We may or may not hear this chanted tonight at Madison Square Garden, but I think we will at Yankee Stadium: go New York, go New York, go!

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Over 9.5 Runs (-122)

For an NL West affair, let's dive into the San Francisco Giants (16-21) at Colorado Rockies (8-27). This will be our latest scheduled contest on Wednesday's slate, and like most games at Coors Field, I think we'll see a lot of runs.

The starting pitchers in this divisional bid will be Jordan Hicks and Peter Lambert. Hicks has been better than Lambert in 2024, showcasing a 4.07 SIERA. However, Hicks is walking 9.2% of all hitters faced, which could lead to trouble when playing at elevation.

For Colorado, Lambert has been used both as a starter and out of the 'pen. Wednesday will mark his third start of the season. Throughout the previous two, Lambert was tagged for a total of 10 earned runs.

We all know how popular NRFI bets are, and my colleague Kenyatta Storin releases daily picks on those markets at FanDuel Sportsbook. For today, he also likes the scoring to start early in Denver, playing over 0.5 runs for the opening frame (-108 odds).

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections are also in favor of over 9.5 runs at Coors Field. Their model displays a 6.69-5.24 estimated score in favor of San Francisco. That summates to 11.93 combined runs and a 61.78% winning likelihood for over bettors.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.